NFL prediction panel slightly favors Josh Allen-led Bills on road vs. Broncos

It's a repeat of last year's wild-card round, but the setting is vastly different this time.

After handling the Denver Broncos, 31-7, last January at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, the Buffalo Bills will visit Mile High Stadium for their January 17 divisional round matchup against the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"We're going to need everyone," said Bills' head coach Sean McDermott. "It's a great team, No. 1 seed in the AFC and they've earned that. We're at their place, so it's that type of game, and you've got to be able to do your one-eleventh at a very high level."

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In terms of potential outcomes, the game is essentially a toss-up on the betting line. Opening with the Bills as a 1.5-point road favorite, DraftKings Sportsbook now has the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites as Saturday's 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff nears.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) waits looking for a receiver to get open against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. Allen threw the ball to Buffalo Bills running back Ty Johnson (26) for a touchdown. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Sports Illustrated's prediction panel leans slightly toward Buffalo. Four of the six experts selected the Bills to win the game straight up.

Five panelists have had a change of heart with the Bills when it comes to this matchup compared to last week's win in Jacksonville. John Pluym, Mitch Goldich and Matthew Verderame are backing the Bills this week against Denver after picking against them in the wild-card round. Gilberto Manzano and Conor Orr predicted a Bills' win over the Jaguars, but are going with the Broncos this week.

Associate editor Clare Brennan is the only one of the six to pick the Bills two weeks in a row.

Matchup details

The Bills survived the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense (85.6) in Jacksonville last week. Despite being held to 79 yards rushing by the Jaguars, Buffalo scored 27 points on the road with quarterback Josh Allen accounting for all three touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) gets taken down by Denver Broncos linebacker Dondrea Tillman (92) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While the Bills feature the league's top-ranked rushing attack (159.6), the Broncos' defense ranks second against the run (91.1) and second overall (278.2). Denver also featured a highly-ranked run defense entering last year's matachup, but Bills' running back James Cook was able to break the 100-yard barrier. He rushed 23 times for 120 yards and one touchdown.

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Allen should be able to have success against Denver's defense, but only if the Bills are able to protect him adequately. The Broncos rank No. 1 in sack percentage (11.47). Although Buffalo carries a significant size advantage over Denver's defensive front, Nik Bonnito and Co. must be accounted for at all times.

On the other side, Broncos' quarterback Bo Nix is 1-8 as a starter against teams that finished the season with winning records and scored more than 17 points against Denver (h/t @ScottKacsmar).

Despite posting two fewer regular season wins, the Bills (12-5) recorded a better overall point differential than the Broncos (14-3). Buffalo finished +116 with Denver at +90.