Bills vs. Texans Week 12 picks: Are experts predicting Houston to upset Buffalo?

The Buffalo Bills are sizeable road favorites over the Houston Texans in Week 12, but are there any experts who think the Texans can pull off an upset?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen calls out before the snap during second half action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 16, 2025 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills head into their Week 12 matchup against the Houston Texans looking to start a winning streak.

After dropping their Week 10 game to the Miami Dolphins, the Bills rebounded with a huge 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11.

Meanwhile, the Texans notched their second-straight victory with a win over the Tennessee Titans despite not having quarterback C.J. Stroud once again.

The deck was already stacked against Houston in this matchup, but that is even more the case after Stroud was ruled out on Tuesday, setting the stage for Davis Mills to start again.

RELATED: Bills clear three-fourths of crowded injury report for Thursday night vs. Texans

The good news for the Texans is they have one of the better defenses in the NFL, so that gives them a puncher's chance.

Jan 11, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers outside linebacker Joey Bosa (97) sacks Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) during the first quarter in an AFC wild card game | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

But is that enough for experts to pick them to win in the game against the Bills on Thursday night? Let's find out.

ESPN

Matt Bowen: Bills

Mike Clay: Bills

Pamela Maldonado: Texans

Jason Reid: Bills

Seth Wickersham: Bills

Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Bills 23, Texans 20

Iyer: "The Bills rode Josh Allen's wild stallion passing and running dominance to victory over the Buccaneers' defense, but the Texans present a tougher challenge in prime time on the road. They can stop the run and pressure him, backing it up with good coverage. He will need to dig deeper to make a few big plays off script. Unfortunately, the Texans don't have the pop with either QB to edge him.

Jeremy Cluff, Arizona Republic: Bills 27, Texans 20

Cluff: "The Texans have allowed an NFL-best 163 points, but they face a Bills team that just had Josh Allen score six touchdowns and put up 44 points. Buffalo will be able to outscore Houston."

John Breech, CBS Sports: Bills 20, Texans 17

Breech: "I think the Texans will keep this close, but I can't pick against Allen, who has never lost a Thursday game in his career. He's 8-0 all-time, which is the most wins in NFL history without a loss. I also can't pick against a team that has a Hallmark Christmas movie coming out this week."

Number of experts picking Bills: 7

Number of experts picking Texans: 1

Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop (24) makes an interception against Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) | Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

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