Bills enter Week 18 facing three possible AFC playoff seeding scenarios

The Buffalo Bills can finish anywhere from the No. 5 seed to the No. 7 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture

Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) walks off of the field after a game against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills are in the NFL Playoffs no matter what happens during their January 4 regular season finale against the New York Jets, but their seed is to be determined.

The Bills will enter the postseason as a wildcard team, meaning they can earn nothing higher than the No. 5 seed in the seven-team AFC bracket.

Heading into Week 18, the Bills (11-5) hold the No. 7 seed with the No. 5 Houston Texans (11-5) and No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) holding higher slots by virtue of tiebreakers.

MORE: Why Sean McDermott's unsuccessful late-game decision gives Bills reason for optimism

The Bills lose tiebreakers against the Chargers and the Texans, so they'll need to finish with a better overall record to leap either team in the standings. If all three teams win their finales, then the seeding will remain the same. The odds, however, suggest some shuffling is more than possible.

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans defensive tackle Tim Settle Jr. (98) sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the second half at NRG Stadium | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Chargers, who will rest quarterback Justin Herbert in Week 18, are a 13.5-point road underdog against the Denver Broncos, who need a win to guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, the Texans are 10-point home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Bills are 7.5-point home favorites over the Jets. All point spreads are posted by DraftKings and are subject to change.

All three games are on Sunday. The Texans have a 1 p.m. ET kickoff while the Bills and Chargers are in the 4:25 p.m. window.

RELATED: Bills' Dalton Kincaid, two others questionable to face Jets on Week 18 injury report

Although they're likely to rest some starters, the Bills will be playing to win the final scheduled game in Highmark Stadium history. Not only does Buffalo want a proper send-off for its 53-year-old home venue, quarterback Josh Allen, who is in line to play at least one snap on Sunday, sees value in achieving as high of a seed as possible.

Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass while Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) pressuring him | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

"Five [seed] at least gives you an opportunity potentially to have a home game [in later rounds]. I know that, like I said, the chances are very slim of that happening, but if you're seven, you don't have a chance," said Allen.

Bills are 5 seed if...

Bills win

AND

Texans lose (or tie)

AND

Chargers lose (or tie)

Bills are 6 seed if...

Bills win

AND

either Texans lose (or tie) OR Chargers lose (or tie)

Bills are 7 seed if...

Bills lose

OR

Bills win AND Texans win AND Chargers win

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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