Will the Buccaneers Go Over or Under Their 2026 Win Total?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and if they hope to reclaim their throne as the best team in the NFC South, they must see success in what they do this offseason.

Tampa Bay has already made changes to the staff and must now correctly scout their next crop of rookies while making the right moves in free agency.

With the 2026 season about to get underway, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for all 32 NFL teams. And per DraftKings, the Buccaneers' win total for the 2026 season is set at 8.5 with the over at -140 odds and the under at plus money, +115.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 Win Total | DraftKings

Why the Bucs WILL Go Over 8.5 Wins

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Bucs have gone over this number in three of the past five seasons, with the other two coming within one win of going over.

Tampa Bay still plays in what is thought of as the worst division in football, the NFC South, and despite the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers all showing signs of improvement, the Bucs still are viewed as the cream of the crop. If the Bucs can go even just 4-2 against their division rivals, there is no reason to think they won't top eight wins and make the playoffs.

If the Bucs are able to overcome their habit of midseason lulls or late-season collapses, then nine wins are easily feasible, especially if they properly structure the roster. With offensive continuity continuing under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and an expected rebound on the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs will be in a prime position to blow away their win total.

Why the Bucs WILL NOT Go Over 8.5 Wins

Despite the foreshadowing of what the Buccaneers could be in 2026, there is also the chance they completely flop.

The Bucs have continuously struggled under Todd Bowles when it comes to situational play, injuries, and defensive regression, and with that, his seat has become scorching hot as we head into the next season. If the Bucs allow outside noise back into their locker room, we could very much see a similar outcome to what was seen in 2025.

With uncertainty surrounding the future of Mike Evans and Lavonte David, coupled with the unknown when it comes to free agency, the NFL Draft, and a potential youth movement, it makes it even clearer why the Bucs are straddling the line of getting above .500.

New coaches and new players aren't litmus tests for how well a team will perform during the season. Until they get on the field and showcase what they can do, we continue to live with uncertainty.

To top it all off, for why the Bucs might not reach nine wins in 2026, they have some tough non-division games on deck against the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Chicago Bears.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Stick with BucsGameday for more coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throughout the 2025 season.

Follow BucsGameday on Twitter and Facebook