Chiefs vs. Texans Preview: Dominance or Doom for KC in Divisional Round of Playoffs?

For the first time this year, the Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for a playoff game as they continue their ongoing quest for a record third championship in a row. Standing in their way this Saturday are the Houston Texans, a feisty AFC South squad that just took on the reigning Super Bowl winners less than a month ago.
How does Kansas City match up with Houston, and how could Saturday afternoon's game unfold? Let's preview the divisional round and outline everything there is to know. For a refresher on the Texans' offseason, an in-depth breakdown of their tendencies and more, click here for Week 16's preview.
Chiefs vs. Texans playoff injury report
Kansas City: Luckily for Andy Reid's team, things are in a good place on the injury front. Previously injured players like left tackle D.J. Humphries (hamstring) and safety Chamarri Conner (shoulder) don't carry designations into the weekend, nor does star defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf). Jones will officially make his return to the lineup on Saturday. Elsewhere, cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle) is expected to play snaps in the divisional round and get back on the field for the first time since his injury in October. Watson was ruled questionable on Thursday, with wide receiver Mecole Hardman (knee) being doubtful as the team's lone limited participant in the day's practice.
Houston: The Texans' luck isn't as fortunate. Four players are questionable for Saturday's game: running back Joe Mixon (ankle), wideout Robert Woods (hip), tight end Teagan Quitoriano (calf) and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Mixon's situation is the one to watch, as the veteran halfback's injury report status got worse with each passing day of practice. He didn't participant on Thursday (nor did Woods), leaving a major question mark to answer this weekend.
Why the Chiefs can beat the Texans on Saturday
With Watson back in the lineup, an already solid Chiefs defense could get back to its roots in the best of ways. After bottoming out during the middle portion of the year, the late-season Steve Spagnuolo unit got closer and closer to being a force to be reckoned with. For reference, Weeks 1-7 (Watson's active games) saw Kansas City rank seventh in EPA/play and ninth in dropback EPA/play allowed. It resembled the 2023-24 defense more than the one that struggled to find its footing in November. In the secondary, Joshua Williams's improved play and Trent McDuffie's experience slowing down Nico Collins will help.
The Kansas City front should also benefit from the best version of Spagnuolo. Not only that, but getting Jones back just in time to face one of football's worst pass protection units is huge. Houston struggles to hold up against pressure and gives up plenty of them in just about all situations (including in the red zone). Stroud's sack avoidance leaves plenty to be desired and without Tank Dell in this game, he has one less weapon at his disposal. A hobbled Mixon also doesn't bode well for the Texans on offense.
Speaking of offense, the Chiefs may be as strong as ever this season. With Patrick Mahomes and Co. rested, Travis Kelce feeling good and the duo of Xavier Worthy and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown optimized, this group might be set to soar. That's without even mentioning both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco getting some time off to gear up for grueling January football. The expected Andy Reid playoff scheme bump adds to the case for Kansas City being close to a well-oiled machine when it matters most.
Why the Chiefs can lose to the Texans on Saturday
For as difficult of a challenge Mahomes can be, there aren't many better-equipped defenses to slow him down than Houston's. The secondary duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter simply doesn't allow wide-open targets and isn't afraid of playing man coverage. Up front, the combination of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. might just be the best one-two punch of outside pass rushers the sport has right now. Houston gets pressure and does it with a quickness.
There's a sample size of Joe Thuney performing at left tackle against this front, but the second time around will bring even greater difficulty. This might be the best defense the Chiefs face during their postseason run, even if they get all the way to the Super Bowl. DeMeco Ryans and Matt Burke's unit is great on a per-drive basis and can also slow down opposing rushing attacks (especially on inside concepts).
Making an argument for the Texans' offense outperforming Kansas City's, to be frank, is a tall task. With that said, Stroud is a year removed from a fantastic rookie-quarterbacking season and shows flashes of that player. Collins is a game-breaking talent who had 127 more yards as an isolated player than anyone else this season. He also had his best game in over a month on wild-card weekend, hauling in seven passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. The two-man show can produce quality results when supported by tight end Dalton Schultz and an effective Mixon (if available).
Divisional round score prediction: 31-23 Chiefs
I'm rolling with another eight-point win over the Texans here for the Chiefs. In the last matchup, the Houston offense fell apart in the second half and Kansas City's defense grew more and more confident. Stroud and company absolutely won't roll over – Ryans is too good of a coach and the defense is too stout – but championship DNA, rest and home-field advantage are too much to overcome. This game isn't some AFC title outing tune-up and deserves its respect, yet it should end with a familiar face waiting for the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens in the next round.