Jaguars vs. Chiefs Roundtable: Preview, Predictions And More

The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to face the defending AFC Champs on the league's biggest regular-season stage, with the Kansas City Chiefs set to visit EverBank Stadium on Monday Night Football.

To give you our full comprehensive preview of Week 5, our team of writers has gotten together to give their predictions and weigh in on the game's biggest questions.

Will Jaguars' OL, QB be able to hold up against Steve Spagnuolo?

John Shipley: Trevor Lawrence has been solid against the blitz this season, but I think the way the Jaguars counter Spags this week is by running the ball. Take the game out of the passing game's hands and lean on the offensive line, Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten. I think the Jaguars can win that way; if they have to rely on dropback passing, I am skeptical.

Andy Quach: The Chiefs have been able to generate double-digit pressures in every single game so far, but they've played highly questionable offensive lines in each week outside of their clash with the Philadelphia Eagles. There's a decent chance that the Jaguars might have the best protection of anyone they've played so far. If they can scheme Chris Jones out of the game with double teams and chip blocks, they should be able to hold up fine against Kansas City's pass rush.

Sep 28, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Trevor Lawrence is another story. He's been kept clean in every game this season but still hasn't been able to get going, at least not to the level that fans and analysts had hoped he would under Head Coach Liam Coen. Outside of Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs don't have anyone to write home about in the secondary. Hopefully, Coen can build a great game plan with plenty of easy outlets for Lawrence, and the quarterback can avoid any backbreaking mistakes. He'll need to have his best statistical output so far to keep pace with this rising Kansas City offense.

Jared Feinberg: That's the great concern, right? The Chiefs have one of the toughest defenses in the league yearly because of Spagnuolo, who is very good with his pre-snap and late rotations in shell coverages. I feel the Jaguars are starting to sustain momentum on offense, plus they are at home for this matchup, and home-field advantage is a real thing for winning teams. This could either be the game where Trevor Lawrence and his offensive line find the rhythm and pacing needed to terrorize opposing teams, or make a mess in the bed in a critical matchup. I'm on the fence with this situation and want to wait and see what Coen does script-wise to start this game.

Do the Jaguars finally stump Patrick Mahomes?

John Shipley: I think this is the Jaguars' best chance to do so since they have played the Chiefs three times dating back to 2022. The back seven is playing at a truly high level, the front four is stopping the run, and Josh Hines-Allen is playing lights out. Mahomes will get a chunk play here or there, but I like the Jaguars' odds to have their best-ever performance against the star quarterback who they have never defeated.

Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) celebrates with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Andy Quach: It's pretty rare to see Patrick Mahomes fully contained, but Jacksonville has the personnel necessary to slow him down. It's long been said that the best way to combat Mahomes is with the same game plan that applies to all of the great quarterbacks in history: generate pressure with four-man fronts and drop extra bodies into coverage.

The Jaguars have fielded a top-tier defense this year, but they've been susceptible to giving up long drives to patient attacks willing to take what Jacksonville's giving them. That fits what Mahomes and the Chiefs have liked to do in the past few seasons to a tee. Kansas City's two-time MVP has been known to press the issue sometimes, though. I'm thinking he'll have a strong statistical showing but could wind up with a turnover or two against this ball-hawking unit.

Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) speaks with Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Jared Feinberg: They have the defense to do it. It is incredible what Campanile has done with the Jaguars' defense, one that has always had the talent but needed the push from a guy like him. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the sport, no matter what anyone else says, which means this is going to be a tall task for all four quarters. If there is a defense that can silence Mahomes and put his offense into tough positions and miscues, a path to victory is there.

Score prediction?

Sep 28, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen looks on during warmups before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

John Shipley: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 23. This will be the third Jaguars game in a row that goes down to the wire, but I think the Jaguars will be able to run the ball efficiently and will force at least one big play on defense to swing things their way. I picked against the Jaguars last week, and will not make that mistake again.

Andy Quach: I can't pick the Jaguars to win every game, although I wish I could. Maybe I'm emotionally hedging here. I'll definitely be hoping that I'm wrong. At this point in the season, still early into Coen's tenure, I just don't see Jacksonville's offense clicking enough in Week 5 to be able to surpass Mahomes and the Chiefs, especially with Xavier Worthy back. I think the Jaguars will keep it close and show once again that they're a serious playoff threat this year. Unless Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter Jr., or all three break out for Monday Night Football, though, Jacksonville will fall just short. Maybe they'll have a chance to get revenge in the postseason when their offense has fully found its footing. Chiefs win in Duval, 31-27.

Jared Feinberg: This is a tough game to pick because doubting Mahomes is almost like a death sentence in most cases. I don't feel comfortable doing that, but the Chiefs, while having played inspiring football in recent weeks, [gulp] don't scare me right now. This could be the year where Mahomes, Reid, "Spags," and the Chiefs are playing on the road to start the postseason for the first time since Mahomes became the starter. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are your modern-day version of a great rushing offense and sound defense with competent quarterback play. I also like Lawrence to have his best performance of the season so far. I'm picking Jacksonville again to win a monster game at home in front of a national audience. Jaguars 28, Chiefs 23.

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