Ranking NFL Offenses: Minnesota Vikings No. 7

The Vikings did an excellent job covering the injury to J.J. McCarthy last season, leading to their best record (14-3) since 1998 and a big payday for Sam Darnold. Minnesota attacked in the deep passing game, but Darnold faltered when his passing window was short, leading to drive-killing sacks. I was extremely high on the outlook for McCarthy in 2024, so I must stay in his camp this year until he proves me wrong. Minnesota only has five picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, with the first two going to G Donovan Jackson and WR Tai Felton.

Minnesota Vikings Starting Lineup

QB J.J. McCarthy

RB1 Aaron Jones

RB2 Jordan Mason

WR1 Justin Jefferson

WR2 Jordan Addition

WR3 Jalen Nailor

TE T.J. Hockenson

WR4 Rondale Moore

7. Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Outlook

McCarthy draws the upside, winning game manager tag based on his success and production in college. He throws the ball well on the run, especially moving to his right. Many of his completions came with his receivers facing tight coverage. McCarthy will move the chains with his legs while also extending his passing window when the pocket breaks down.

The Michigan Wolverines gave McCarthy 28 starts over the past two seasons, leading to a 27-1 record, highlighted by a National Championship in 2023. Despite his high level of success, his college stats don’t jump off the page. He passed for 6,226 yards with 49 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his time at Michigan. In 2023, McCarthy gained 3,193 combined yards with 25 touchdowns, averaging only 22.1 passes. His completion rate (72.3) and yards per pass attempt (9.0) graded in an elite area.

JJ McCarthy’s arm reportedly “reminds” TJ Hockenson (Vikings TE) of Matthew Stafford (Rams QB).

McCarthy is reportedly going to be in the “best football shape” of his career by training camp and is ready to take over as the QB1 in Minnesota.

Multiple NFL scouts reportedly… pic.twitter.com/KHecjVs0K9
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) May 6, 2025

McCarthy remains an unknown commodity in the early draft season based on his ranking (21st) at quarterback.

Minnesota wants to air the ball out based on their pass attempts over the past three seasons (672, 632, and 631). They have one of the best wide receivers in the game (Justin Jefferson). The combination of Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson adds length to their passing attack, and Josh Naylor (28/414/6) flashed at times last year. The Vikings will pair him with Tai Felton to force defenses to defend the long field in the deep passing game.

At age 29, Aaron Jones had a career-high in touches (306) with high-ranking success in combined yards (1,546) and catches (51). Unfortunately, his lack of scoring (7 TDs) led to more steady (12 games with between 10.00 and 19.00 fantasy points in PPR formats) than impactful outcomes (25.80 and 20.90 fantasy points). As a result, Jones ranked 15th at running back in 2024. The addition of Jordan Mason led to him sliding in drafts (26th) in early May.

Justin Jefferson (103/1,533/10) comes off another great season, but he had more success in 2021 (108/1,616/10) and 2022 (128/1,809/8). His yard per catch (14.9) and value in the deep passing game (28 catches of 20 yards or more) remain high. On the downside, Jefferson failed to gain over 150 yards receiving in 2024 after reaching that threshold 11 times over his first 60 games. The fantasy market will debate him and Ja’Marr Chase as the best fantasy wideout in 2025.

Most receiving yards per game since 2022:

Justin Jefferson - 100.4
Tyreek Hill - 89.4
Puka Nacua - 88.4
Ja’Marr Chase - 88.2
CeeDee Lamb - 87.8
AJ Brown - 85.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 80.4
Malik Nabers - 80.3
Davante Adams - 77.6
Stefon Diggs - 75.8 pic.twitter.com/N38oJ0pina
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) March 30, 2025

In his second season with the Vikings, Jordan Addison missed two games early in the year with an ankle issue. His final stats (63/875/9 on 99 targets) were on pace to beat his rookie season. Minnesota upped his usage after Week 10, leading to two impact games (8/162/1 and 8/133/3) over a seven-game stretch (41/577/7 on 60 targets). He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in PPR formats over this span. Surprisingly, Addison draws a backend WR3 rating in the early draft season. I expect his price point to rise over the summer.

Returning from a bad knee injury led to below-par stats for T.J. Hockenson last season. He averaged 4.1 catches for 45.5 yards over 10 games while failing to score in the regular season. His best value came in three matchups (8/72, 7/114, and 5/64/1), with the latter coming in the playoffs. Hockenson played well in 2023 (95/960/5), and he should regain some of his lost fantasy value this year. He projects to be a top-five tight end in 2025.

The Vikings have a top 10 pass-catching running back, two elite wide receivers, and a top-tier tight end, but the fantasy market hasn’t connected the dots for J.J. McCarthy’s fantasy value this year. This offense should be much better in 2025.