Week 11 Dynasty Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Cooper Kupp, Desmond Ridder
In one of my superflex dynasties, we just passed our Week 10 trade deadline. We're in our first season so there are a lot of rules that I believe need tweaking to optimize the experience. I'm not the commissioner of this league, so I have plenty of gripes. I believe there's no need for a trade deadline. Just like I don't believe in vetoing of trades unless there is clear evidence of collusion. With that hands-off approach to trade vetoes, I believe the same holds true about trade deadlines. You don't need them. We still have about a month until the fantasy playoffs and if you want to make moves, you should be allowed to do so.
I could understand a rule where none of the top-eight teams cannot trade a week or two before the playoffs, which would allow the bottom four teams to make trades among themselves. This minimizes the risk of fairly-made, but lopsided trades where the last place team dumps big assets to a top team. But part of the game is that gamesmanship. You want to win? You have to do everything within the rules to do so. It's also part of being a good manager. Just because you're in last doesn't mean you have the right to stop setting lineups and leaving players in your starting lineup who are on a bye. It's the little things that can make or break a good league experience.
The problem for commissioners is often just leaving in default settings. A trade deadline might mean teams can't even trade after the season is over. This means trades might not come back online for weeks or months. That's just not acceptable in any dynasty format. Dynasty is a year-long format and while there may be nothing immediate that needs to be done, a dynasty should never feel "done" for the season, whether you're in first or last.
Let's get to the dynasty stock watch...
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
A few weeks ago in my Week 7 Dynasty Stock Watch, I discussed Kupp among a few top-tier players you should trade away if you were in a rebuild. What a difference a few weeks can make! Let me first quote myself so we're on the same page:
Trading away Cooper Kupp? This is what a rebuild looks like. Kupp will be 30 next year. ... The wheels have come off in Los Angeles. ... They’ve scored the fewest points in the NFC West. Things ain’t good. Last year’s Super Bowl win and a 3-3 record are maintaining the illusion that everything is okay. And I understand the reluctance to move him. Kupp doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Kupp is the No. 2 receiver in PPR leagues, right behind Diggs. Kupp’s 2.45 Y/RR falls well short of his 2021 total (3.12), but would still be his second-best rate. He’s on pace to force more missed tackles and catch more contested passes than last year. Basically I’m implying that it’s the Rams slowing down Kupp, not the other way around. Strike while the iron is hot and trade him for a huge bounty. You should be shooting for three 2023 1st rounders.
Now you may believe that trading Kupp for three first-round picks was impossible, but I was referring to cumulative trade value in return. That was his value at the time, or at least the target value we were hoping to get for him. Now? His value is halved. You could probably still get a future first and second for him. Obviously the market has moved down, but there's no leverage in trying to trade him. In any given trade, you can get lucky and find someone to overspend, but Kupp managers are working behind the 8-ball. Now we're talking about a 30-year-old next season coming off of ankle surgery. He can return in four weeks, but will the Rams really rush him out there if they're one of the bottom-four teams in the NFC and have no shot at the postseason? Don't get me wrong, I still feel Kupp would be a late first-round redraft pick in 2023, but we don't know if Matthew Stafford will be around. Even if you're a true believer and love the guy for another two or three elite seasons, the Rams aren't grooming a young rookie QB on the bench. Maybe they trade for another veteran to come in and take over if Stafford retires, but the larger point is we should have already moved on from Kupp in a rebuild. It's foolish to believe everything will go a player's way indefinitely. Fantasy is like life and life can get ugly fast. Kupp's value could rebound if he heals quickly and plays again this year. That's probably best case scenario if you're still holding him in a rebuild.
Price check: 2023 first and second
Win-now: Hold and hope for late fantasy playoff return
Rebuild: Hold until next selling window (returns in one month or ahead of NFL Draft or 2024 season)
QB Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is falsely clinging to the hope that if a couple games go their way, they're right back in the postseason conversation. While this is true and their schedule isn't too tough over their next few games, reality will set in eventually. There is a logjam in the NFC playoff picture with the Commanders in eighth at 5-5, three teams tied at 4-6 (including Atlanta), two teams tied at 3-6 and three more teams at 3-7. It's still mathematically possible for any of these teams to make the playoffs and I expect all of them to play like that is true.
However, I am a little nervous because this does mean the Falcons believe Marcus Mariota gives them the best chance to win games. Ridder, after being with the team, getting practice reps and mental reps—Atlanta still believes Ridder is their second-best QB. Mariota is playing somewhere in the range of admirably to subpar every week. If Ridder was making big strides, they'd start him and accelerate his learning curve. That'd be very encouraging for his future prospects. Alas, we're in a holding pattern with Ridder—waiting for him to get the nod sooner or later.
I believe it's clear that Mariota isn't long for the starting job and Ridder getting his shot is inevitable. There are two league scenarios where I'm happy to take a chance on Ridder. First, you're in a superflex dynasty and you can stash him as your QB3 or QB4. Next, if you're in a deeper dynasty format where, again, you can stash him as a backup or on your practice squad. Ridder can be had on the cheap. He hasn't even taken a regular season snap yet. Hopefully the team in your league that has Ridder could use a pick or an asset more than Ridder just sitting on their bench. I don't mind a slight overpay here because Ridder's value has completely tanked and will at least double ahead of his first start or playing time. I'd even buy him in a win-now since he's so cheap and try to include him as a tack-on piece to a larger trade.
I don't even believe there's much need to watch Ridder tape or try to justify this acquisition. But I do believe he showed improvement from his junior to senior season at Cincinnati. There were notable performance jumps in his accuracy, coverage reads, footwork, arm strength, athleticism and so on. But there were concerns about big mistakes or the occasionally very errant pass or really bad read. Hopefully, the Falcons have helped him iron out those kinks to avoid drive-killing plays. All that said, given his price tag, there's almost no risk here at all.
Price check: 2023 third or fourth
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
More fantasy & NFL coverage:
• Week 11 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DST
• Week 11 Projections: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Waiver Wire Pickups Week 11
• Top 10 Week 10 Fantasy Takeaways
• Fantasy Fallout: Kupp Injury Torments Tinseltown
• Week 11 IDP Waiver Wire Report
• Early Look at Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups
• The Upside-Down World of Long Snappers
