Second-Year Quarterbacks Who Could Become Fantasy Stars in 2026

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Fantasy managers are always looking for the next big thing, mostly in the form of a potential sleeper or breakout candidate. Sometimes historical trends can give us some guidance. One such trend that has occurred in recent years features quarterbacks.

Since 2015, at least one second-year signal-caller has exceeded expectations and become a draft steal heading into the 2026 season. That player has gone from being a late-rounder to a fantasy starter, and it wasn’t expected in most of these cases.

Here’s a look at the quarterbacks behind this trend.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars (2015): The “Garbage Time King,” Bortles saw his points-per-game total increase by 7.8 points in Year 2 compared to his rookie season. He finished fourth overall among quarterbacks, scoring 316.1 fantasy points. However, this would be his best year in fantasy football, as Bortles saw his point totals decline in each of his final four NFL seasons.

Marcus Mariota, Titans (2016): The trend didn’t really come to fruition during this season, as Mariota was better from a fantasy perspective as a rookie than he was in Year 2. He did average a respectable 17.3 points per game, but that didn't represent a breakout season.

Carson Wentz, Eagles (2017): Wentz went off in 2017, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game as an NFL sophomore. That was up more than eight points compared to his rookie average. Unfortunately, Wentz got hurt after was limited to 13 games, but he still finished fifth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Like Bortles, this would also be Wentz’s best fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (2018): Mahomes’ situation differed from that of Bortles and Wentz in that he sat as a rookie behind Alex Smith before finally starting the last game of the regular season. Then he would go on to produce one of his best fantasy seasons in Year 2, throwing for a bananas 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. In all, Mahomes averaged 26.1 points per game and was the top fantasy quarterback in 2018.

Our 2018 MVP – none other than Patrick Mahomes!https://t.co/1SfSevkIaM pic.twitter.com/W91eGlzD4H
— PFF (@PFF) January 25, 2019

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (2019): Jackson started seven games as a rookie, averaging 9.9 fantasy points. But like the four quarterbacks listed before him, he had one of his best fantasy seasons as an NFL sophomore, with 43 total touchdowns, over 1,206 rushing yards and 415.7 points. Oddly enough, Jackson’s points declined each of the following three years before he bounced back with 331.2 points and an MVP performance in 2023. He later set the record for the most fantasy points scored by a quarterback in 2024 before seeing a decline in value last year.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (2020): Murray busted out as an NFL sophomore, scoring 378.7 fantasy points on the strength of his 37 total touchdowns. What’s more, he averaged 5.9 more points per game than he had in his rookie campaign. Murray was also good in his third season, and he has averaged more than 18 fantasy points per game since 2022.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (2021): Burrow posted decent numbers as a rookie, averaging 17.4 points per game before going down with a torn ACL. The LSU product then busted out in the stat sheets the following year, scoring 314.2 points and finishing eighth in points. Unlike the other quarterbacks in this research, Burrow was even better in his third season with 350.7 points.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (2022): Lawrence endured a dreadful rookie season, in part due to the mess that was Urban Meyer. He rebounded as an NFL sophomore, however, scoring 295.6 points. His points-per-game average jumped by nearly six points. Lawrence recorded a career-best in fantasy points in 2025, but regardless, he had a nice leap in Year 2.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (2023): Purdy was sensational in Year 2, pushing his points-per-game average from 11.8 as a rookie to 18.5—a near seven-point increase. He also finished sixth in fantasy points at quarterback, ahead of stars such as Mahomes and Justin Herbert, to name just a few. He’s now a low-end fantasy starter heading into most 2026 fantasy football drafts.

Bryce Young, Panthers (2024): Young did have a great finish to his second season and improved on his rookie campaign, but he was still just 20th in points among quarterbacks. So, this year and 2016 are the only seasons in which this trend did not come to fruition.

Drake Maye, Patriots (2025): Maye busted out in his second NFL campaign, seeing a near seven-point-per-game average leap in 2025. He was so good, in fact, that only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points than Maye among fantasy quarterbacks this past season.

What History Taught Us

All right, so what can we assert from this trend and the players involved? For one, the jump in points as a sophomore from those who played as a rookie is around six per game. In fact, only Burrow saw a jump of fewer than 5.7 points. Jackson and Mahomes saw bigger leaps, but they didn’t start most of their rookie games (just one in Mahomes's case).

The other trend we found is that among these quarterbacks, their second year has sometimes been their best fantasy season. Bortles saw his points decline in each of the following four years, and Wentz was never able to recapture the magic he had as an NFL sophomore. Murray’s second season is also his best, though he did average a stout 21.5 points in Year 3.

Fantasy Breakout Candidates

Based on this sticky trend, fantasy fans should be targeting Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough and Cam Ward in their upcoming drafts. My favorite potential breakout of the trio is Dart, who was good as a rookie starter and now has Malik Nabers back from a knee injury. I also like Shough, who showed signs of busting out in the second half of his rookie campaign. Ward is more of a sleeper than a breakout candidate, but he too could exceed ADP expectations.

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