D-backs Must Sprint to Trade Deadline to Improve Playoff Odds

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a roller coaster season in 2026. On May 27 they finished the day with a 31-24 record, and were tied with the San Diego Padres for the first NL Wild Card. They were also just 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Fast forward to July 8, and the Diamondbacks had dropped to two games under .500 with a 45-47 record. They had just played a sloppy ballgame in a 10-4 loss to those same Padres, and were 5.5 games out of the third NL Wild position with six teams in front of them. The Marlins and Phillies were tied at 51-42.

It seemed that the D-backs were clearly headed to the August 3 trade deadline as sellers. After winning the final game of the four game set in San Diego to salvage a split, they took the bus up to Los Angeles to face the mighty Dodgers.

There they pulled off the unthinkable, sweeping a three-game series and outscoring the Dodgers 23-8. At the same time the Marlins were getting swept over the weekend by the Guardians, completely changing the complexion of the standings.

National League Standings through July 12

NL Standings thru games of July 12 | SI.COM

Suddenly the D-backs are just 2.5 games behind the Marlins with just the Cardinals and Pirates in between. It's notable, however, that the Marlins hold the tie-breaker advantage due to a 3-0 record head to head with the D-backs. That effectively puts the D-backs 3.5 games behind Miami. The two teams will meet for a three game series at Chase Field September 14-16.

Beyond the standings we need to look at playoff odds and projections going forward. While wins and losses are still the most important thing, teams need to project their chances to either continue to play well or improve from where they are. That informs their trade deadline decisions alongside the actual win-loss records.

National League Playoff Odds Through July 12

NL Composite Playoff Odds Through July 12 | Jack Sommers

The above table shows the composite playoff odds from Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. The Diamondbacks ninth position in this table mirrors their position in the actual standings.

On May 28 they entered play with 53% playoff odds, and had dropped all the way into single digits by July 8. Just five days later they've popped back up to 22.3%, but that's still a long shot chance to make the Postseason.

Trade Deadline Buyers or Sellers?

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick near Scottsdale on Feb. 20, 2024. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

On June 18 Mike Hazen proclaimed his intention to be a buyer at the trade deadline. At this juncture, Hazen is still in wait and see mode. How the team does coming out of the All-Star break will ultimately determine what he does.

While there are still 16 games before the actual August 3 deadline, the decision on which way to go likely needs to be made no later than July 29, and perhaps several days before the that. Ten of the games between July 17-29 are against teams they're jockeying with for Wild Card position.

Diamondbacks Schedule Between July 17-29 | Jack Sommers

Speaking to Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports, Hazen indicated that the number of teams they have to chase down is a bigger factor in their decision making than the number of games back. If they need to climb over five teams, that's going to make it nearly impossible to pull the trigger on any strong buy moves.

If the D-backs are going to be buyers, they almost certainly need to add a starting pitcher and a left-handed bat. Those are the areas that have graded out the worst. The rotation has also suffered multiple injuries, including Ryne Nelson, Michael Soroka, and Zac Gallen. Corbin Burnes suffered a setback in his rehab as well.

The D-backs would also like to bolster the bullpen, which has been excellent, but has carried a heavy workload.

That's a big shopping list, and in a market with not enough sellers the asking prices are likely to be sky high. It's unlikely the the team will be able to fill all of those holes at the deadline, regardless of how aggressive Hazen is willing to be.

That leaves internal improvements as the strongest path forward. The weekend series in Los Angeles offered glimmers of hope. Tim Tawa had a great series, and may just be the answer to first base after all. The defense was impeccable, lead by Geraldo Perdomo and Nolan Arenado on the left side.

But the D-backs are only going as far as their top of the order can take them. Corbin Carroll must shake his 4-for-52 slump and start hitting fastballs again. Ketel Marte must break the pattern of slumps and hot streaks and find some consistency. Perdomo getting back to some semblance of the hitter he was last year would go a long way as well.

The next two weeks could very well determine not only the trade deadline direction and the odds for the playoffs in 2026, but also job security for their manager. Torey Lovullo is in the final year of his contract, and the consensus is that if the team does not make the Postseason, he won't be brought back.

Every game is critical. This was said best by closer Paul Sewald right after he locked down his 22nd save in 23 chances: "Every game matters a lot before August 3," Sewald said.

Paul Sewald on the @Dbacks great finish and Dodgers sweep before the All Star break pic.twitter.com/T1PSiUJIYL
— Jody Jackson (@Jody_Jackson) July 12, 2026

He couldn't be more right.

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