One Free Agent the Mets Should Avoid at All Costs This Offseason

The New York Mets have a lengthy list of needs for David Stearns and the rest of the front office to address this offseason. Perhaps none is more pressing than adding two starting pitchers to the rotation.

New York has a plethora of young starters who, while promising, are still inexperienced and would benefit from a proven veteran presence in the rotation.

No one is a better fit for the Mets than Tarik Skubal. The two-time AL Cy Young Award winner remains one of the game's top pitchers, something he showed once again in his first postseason start this year.

With such proven dominance, Skubal's market will be extremely competitive and, in all likelihood, result in a contract well north of $300 million.

If the Mets miss out on Skubal, Trevor Rogers stands as the next-best starting pitcher available. The former NL East rival is entering free agency for the first time in his career after reestablishing himself with the Baltimore Orioles over the past two seasons.

However, if Rogers becomes the top starting pitcher remaining on the free-agent market after Skubal, the Mets should resist the temptation to sign him.

Why the Mets shouldn't sign Trevor Rogers

Baltimore Orioles Trevor Rogers throws a pitch against the Seattle Mariners. — If the New York Mets strike out in the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, they shouldn't panic and go after Trevor Rogers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Rogers has had an up-and-down career since debuting in 2020. He became an All-Star and finished runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in his first full big-league season, posting a 2.64 ERA in 25 starts. The left-hander looked well on his way to becoming one of the game's next top pitchers.

But that success disappeared as quickly as it came, with Rogers posting a 5.47 ERA the following season. Over the next two years, his struggles continued before the Miami Marlins eventually traded the once-prized pitcher to the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline.

In Rogers' first full season with Baltimore, he looked like his former All-Star self, but arguably even better. In 18 starts, Rogers dominated, posting a 1.81 ERA over 109.2 innings, striking out 103 batters while holding opponents to a .180 batting average.

The 28-year-old understandably entered 2026 with heightened expectations, with some even predicting he could compete for the AL Cy Young Award. But Rogers had an uneven season, posting a 4.03 ERA in 169.2 innings with 157 strikeouts and a 3.45 FIP (30 starts).

The left-hander got off to a great start to the season, allowing just four runs through his first three outings. The rest of the year, however, was a different story, with Rogers looking dominant at times and far less effective at others.

Still, in a free-agent class lacking high-end starting pitchers, Rogers will be one of the most sought-after arms on the market after finishing the year with a 4.0 fWAR.

The Mets aren't the right fit. New York needs a proven frontline starter who they know can take the ball in Game 1 of a playoff series. Rogers' uneven career and inconsistent 2026 season make it difficult to confidently place him in that category.

That becomes an even bigger concern when considering the contract the soon-to-be-29-year-old will likely command. Rogers could be seeking a long-term contract with a price tag well north of $100 million.

According to Spotrac, Rogers' calculated market value is a projected four-year, $95.5 million deal ($23.9 million AAV).

Ranger Suarez, a somewhat comparable pitcher to Rogers, signed a five-year, $130 million contract with the Boston Red Sox last offseason at age 30. Rogers could command a similar deal, if not an even larger one, on this year's open market.

There are also questions about whether Rogers can consistently handle the workload that comes with being a front-line starter. His 169.2 innings were easily a career high, surpassing his previous mark of 133 innings (2021).

That doesn't mean Rogers can't handle a similar workload moving forward. But it adds another element of risk to an already uncertain player whom the Mets would be gambling on by handing him a lucrative long-term contract.

If New York misses out on Skubal, they would be better off exploring the trade market for a starter such as Logan Gilbert or Joe Ryan. Both are more established than Rogers and would come at a significantly lower cost.

In a pivotal offseason for Stearns and the rest of the Mets front office, they can't afford to force a fit because they have the money. Rogers may end up being the best starting pitcher left on the market after Skubal, and the Mets desperately need an ace, but that doesn't mean they should pay him like one.

New York needs to know that whoever they acquire can be the frontline starter to lead this team in 2027.

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