2023 NFL Week 1 Quarterback Rankings: AFC Dominates Top 10

After each set of games, we’ll look at the 32 starting quarterbacks around the league and shuffle them accordingly based on historical and current play.

Welcome to our weekly quarterback rankings for the 2023 NFL season.

After each set of games, we’ll look at the 32 starting quarterbacks around the league and shuffle them accordingly. It’s a fun exercise, but also an insightful one. History says the better a quarterback is, the better his team’s chances to raise the Lombardi Trophy in February.

Before we get into the opening rankings, a few important ground rules to understand:

• Quarterbacks will be judged on a mix of their historical and current play. The further we get into the season, the more current play matters. For example, if Aaron Rodgers has a bad Week 1, he’s not dropping to 30th behind Colt McCoy should McCoy light up the Commanders.

• Each week, we will rank the 32 quarterbacks projected to start. So if an entrenched starter is out for a month, look for his backup to occupy the space. He’ll be ranked accordingly.

• There’s no distinct formula. This is about a mix of eye test and statistics.

All right, let’s party.

32. Colt McCoy, Arizona Cardinals

31. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons

Ridder has plenty of talent on offense, including tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson, all top-10 picks over the past three years.

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Of any quarterback in their rookie or second year, Ridder might be the most intriguing, except for the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett. Ridder was a third-round choice out of Cincinnati by the Falcons in 2022 and started four games last season with average results.

Now, Ridder takes over as QB1 with hopes of winning the wide-open NFC South. A four-year starter with the Bearcats, the 6'3", 207-pounder threw for 3,334 yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior, leading Cincinnati to a 13–1 record before a loss in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Alabama.

With the Falcons, Ridder has a good support cast led by offensive-minded coach Arthur Smith, plus tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson, all top-10 picks over the past three years. If Ridder steps up, Atlanta could have a dynamic attack.

30. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

29. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

28. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

27. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

26. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

25. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

If Love shines, Green Bay will have a chance to make the playoffs after missing with an 8–9 mark in 2022.

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Everyone is fascinated to see how Love plays in his first year as a starter with the Packers. After sitting behind four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers for the past three seasons, the 2020 first-round pick is getting his chance.

Love is surrounded by a terrific offensive mind in coach Matt LaFleur and veteran backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion. However, youth rules on the perimeter with receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath, and tight ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave.

If Love shines, Green Bay will have a chance to reach the playoffs after missing with an 8–9 mark in 2022.

24. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

23. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

If Pickett develops into a quality signal-caller, the Steelers are primed to make a run at the AFC North.

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Conventional wisdom says Pickett will never be a star. But, conventional wisdom can be wrong.

In four years as a starter at the University of Pittsburgh, Pickett never threw for more than 3,098 yards or 14 touchdowns until his senior season, when he exploded with 4,319 yards and 42 touchdown passes.

Already 25 years old, Pickett isn’t the stereotypical first-round choice, and last year he struggled with only five touchdowns against seven interceptions. But this preseason has seen a changed man, with Pickett going bombs away to George Pickens on the outside. If Pickett develops into a quality signal-caller, the Steelers are primed to make a run at the AFC North.

22. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

21. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

20. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

In 2022, Wilson was a mess, taking a league-high 55 sacks while throwing only 16 touchdowns against 11 picks.

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One of the NFL’s big story lines entering the season is what to make of Wilson in his second year with the Broncos. After a disastrous opening act in Denver under coach Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson now has coach Sean Payton calling the plays.

But will Payton’s presence be enough? In 2022, Wilson was a mess, taking a league-high 55 sacks while throwing only 16 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The supporting cast is largely the same, albeit with a remixed offensive line, including right tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers.

For Wilson, this could be a make-or-break season despite having a five-year extension set to start in 2024. If Denver wants to move on, it could conceivably release Wilson, although the dead money would be enormous. 

19. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders

18. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

17. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

16. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

15. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Smith threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions in 2022.

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Few players have ever enjoyed a more shocking year than Smith did in 2022. After bouncing around the NFL for nine years between four teams, Smith got the starting job in Seattle after the Russell Wilson trade and became a sensation.

Making his first Pro Bowl, Smith threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Before 2022, Smith had only 34 touchdown passes. Now on a loaded roster, including receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith could post even better numbers.

While the narrative is Smith having a Cinderella season, the tape shows a quarterback who had poise and accuracy to all three levels of the field. Look for his success to multiply.

14. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

13. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott struggled last season, leading the league with 15 interceptions despite playing just 12 games.

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The demise of Prescott is being overstated, even if the acquisition of Trey Lance isn’t going to help calm the waters in Dallas. While Prescott struggled last season, leading the league with 15 interceptions despite playing just 12 games, he’s only a year removed from throwing for 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns.

Furthermore, the Cowboys have one of the league’s best rosters. On the perimeter, Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb is on one side, while veteran Brandin Cooks is on the other. Factor in Michael Gallup along with running backs Tony Pollard and Deuce Vaughn, and Prescott will have ample help.

Dallas is a top-tier Super Bowl contender, and Prescott helps that argument, not hurt it.

9. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

6. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence earned Pro Bowl honors in 2022, throwing for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns.

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It’s almost impossible to have the jump in play and stats we saw from Lawrence between his first and second years, but Urban Meyer is indeed that big of an anchor.

After leading the NFL with 17 interceptions in 2021 compared to just eight touchdown passes, Lawrence led the Jaguars to the AFC South title and a dramatic come-from-behind playoff victory in the wild-card round. He also earned Pro Bowl honors, throwing for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns while limiting himself to eight picks.

Now in his second year under coach Doug Pederson, Lawrence should be even more confident and comfortable, especially with the addition of star receiver Calvin Ridley. Look for Jacksonville to have a top-five offense this season, with Lawrence making a run at MVP.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes threw for a career-high 5,250 yards along with 41 touchdowns, earning MVP honors for the second time in his career in 2022.

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After last season, there’s no argument for the top spot.

Mahomes watched the Chiefs trade away Tyreek Hill and then threw for a career-high 5,250 yards along with 41 touchdowns, earning MVP honors for the second time in his career. In the postseason, Mahomes played on one good ankle and beat the Jaguars, Bengals and Eagles by throwing for 703 yards and seven touchdowns with zero interceptions, capping it all by winning Super Bowl LVII MVP.

Entering his age-28 season, Mahomes is already one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in NFL history.

Now, Mahomes enters this season as the league’s Super Bowl favorite at every sportsbook while having a top-three offensive line protecting him. Mahomes also enjoys coach Andy Reid calling the plays, giving him and the Chiefs every reason to expect another long postseason run.