Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Cincinnati's Battle Against Carolina

CINCINNATI — A rare losing week for Bengal Bets matched what the team showcased on the field during Monday's 32-13 beatdown at the hands of the Browns. It marked Cincinnati's first blowout loss since dropping the Chargers game last season and created a 1-2 finish for Bengal Bets.

Nick Chubb gashed the Bengals throughout the night and easily cashed O82.5 rush yards, but the Bengals' defense crumbled after halftime to blow the 2H under streak, and Cincy didn't cover the 3.5 points.

Just like the Bengals, it's time to rebound this week and get back on the winning side.

Season Record: 15-9 (+3.31 units)

Panthers +5.5 (+125 SI Sportsbook)

The Panthers are playing hard for interim coach Steve Wilks. They should've won last week against Atlanta if not for a garbage penalty at the end of regulation and only have a -28 point differential despite being 2-6.

The current Bengals roster is a lot like the 2020 Bengals roster, and that team would never warrant a TD spread. They looked awful offensively on Monday night, and the defense is extremely banged up right now. Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt is a scary proposition for stopping D.J. Moore and a revived PJ Walker.

The former XFL QB shredded a hapless Atlanta Falcons secondary last week (317 yards, one touchdown), and I don't see why he can't be competent against a defense that just lost its best cover man on a short week.

RB D'Onta Foreman is running angry (5.2 yards per carry, third-most rush yards last two weeks), and they should get back RB Chuba Hubbard (fourth in rushing DYAR, first in rushing DVOA among RBs with less than 63 carries).

The Panthers can shorten and control the game to give themselves a shot at the end. Cincinnati's run defense has cratered since losing D.J. Reader in Week 3. They rank 23rd in EPA/rush allowed dating back to Week 4 and 28th since Week 5.

A lot of historical trends say to take the Bengals, but those situations didn't happen with this much injury involved. The Panthers keep things close against a team that could've used a bye week this Sunday,

Joe Mixon U67.5 Rush Yards (-120 SI Sportsbook)

I honestly shouldn't be able to pick this prop. Joe Mixon deserves to be benched and is one of the most obvious cut candidates in the league next off-season. Like all great runners over time, he's lost the burst to turn good blocking into good plays.

The raw stats are well known at this point as the 26-year-old sits sixth in carries (129) but ranks 50th in yards per carry (3.3). Dive deeper, and things are even worse. Mixon is 50th out of 53 qualified rushers in yards after contact and 33rd in attempts per broken tackle.

Looking at Football Outsiders, Mixon is 33/37 rushers in rushing DYAR and 30/37 in rushing DVOA. There's no excuse for this production given the blocking prowess put up by the O-line this season and the contract Cincinnati is paying their bell cow back.

The Bengals rank eighth in ESPN's run block win rate, and Mixon has the third-worst rush yards over expected (-93 yards). He's not gaining all the yards available, and even if he was I still might take this under.

Mixon has only hit this rush total twice in eight games, plus Carolina is playing STRONG run defense under interim coach Steve Wilks. They rank third in EPA/rush allowed since Wilks took over in Week 6.

Joe Burrow O260.5 Passing Yards (-120 SI Sportsbook)

Joey B is built for these games. The Bengals may not have enough talent left off the injury report to beat the Panthers, but Burrow should perform well like he typically does after losses.

I just went in-depth on the Bengals rush attack and its ineptitude. The Bengals need to get a consistent run game going, but they won't with a washed-up running back leading the way. Enter Burrow's arm to keep this close.

Cincinnati ran a franchise-low ten run plays last week, and I think they could hover around a 75% pass rate once again. Carolina's defense is strong along the front, but they are bruised in the secondary, just like Cincinnati. Both outside corners have been fighting injuries this week, with Jaycee Horn expected to play and Donte Jackson looking like a game-time decision.

I'm not going to say the Bengals' O-Line can handle the Panthers' pass rush easily with wreckers like Brian Burns and Derrick Brown on the other side. Yet, they haven't produced much as a team, sacking the QB 12 times this season—29th in the league. That's paired with the 22nd-ranked pressure rate on the season and a secondary allowing the 15th-best EPA/dropback since Wilks took over in Week 6.

Burrow should get more time to operate this week, and if Tee Higgins wins downfield as much as he did against Cleveland, his QB will find him for some big plays.

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