Bengal Bets: Three Wagers to Make in Bengals-Cowboys Week 2 Matchup

CINCINNATI — Our opening week of Bengal Bets got off to a shaky start, just like Cincinnati did in its 23-20 loss to the Steelers. Ja'Marr Chase (129 receiving yards) easily cruised past his yardage line, but Najee Harris failed to eclipse 15 carries and the first half total of 22.5 barely went over.

Back at it this week for Dallas's 13th game of the Dak Prescott era playing without their franchise quarterback. Here are the Bengal Bets for Week 2.

Season Record: 1-2

Evan McPherson O1.5 FGs +100

Money Mac dealt with a snapping crisis in the opener against Pittsburgh, but he still managed to make multiple field goals for the 14th time in his young NFL career.

That makes him 14-of-22 hitting two-plus field goals since being drafted by Cincinnati last season. He's had multiple attempts in 16 of those games. Once the Bengals get over midfield they are in McPherson's range (he hit a franchise-record 59-yarder against Pittsburgh).

Looking at Dallas's recent history against kickers, they aren't keeping them off the field. Last season, the Cowboys ranked 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Opponents made 82% of their looks against Dallas (1.7 kicks made on 2.1 per game).

The Buccaneers kicked five field goals this past Sunday as the defense hardened once Tom Brady's crew passed midfield. Add in the fact that this Bengals offense still looks like the same inconsistent, high-ceiling unit we saw last year, and I love this at even odds.

Cowboys +7.5 (-118 SI Sportsbook)

Everyone and their mother is taking the Bengals to cover this week, and while I expect them to win, I'm zagging the other way. I leaned Pittsburgh +6.5 last week and liked a few wagers more, but the underdog gets a play this week.

Dallas is dealing with injuries to multiple key players, and Cooper Rush is helming the QB position, but I can't trust Zac Taylor to cover this number right now. His playcalling is still hamstringing the offensive consistency 54 games into his head coaching career, and it will keep Dallas in this game.

Micah Parsons plays a big role in winning this bet. He leads the NFL with a silly (!!!) 60% pass-rush win rate after one game. The next closest player is Shaquill Barret at 47%. He will have at least three pressures like he did last week, and it wouldn't be surprising if he has multiple sacks again. The Bengals' offensive front played mediocre at best against Pittsburgh, and the left side will get picked on by Parsons.

Most of the betting trends are not in Cincinnati's favor, starting with 85% of the public betting Cincinnati -7.5 as of this writing (most in Week 2 by 18%).

Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in its past 10 games off an outright loss (4-1 in 2021)
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its past seven road games. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its past eight home games as an underdog.
Cincinnati is 1-4 outright and ATS in its past five road games as a seven-plus point favorite. The one time Cincinnati's been in this spot in Zac Taylor's tenure, they lost to the Jets 34-31 last season as 11.5-point road favorites.
Since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.

To round it all out, Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its past five games without Dak Prescott. Zac Taylor teams don't cover games like this, but they should win it—if not, Cincinnati has a massive hill to climb in pursuit of a 2022 playoff berth.

Joe Mixon O70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Week 1 was a slog for Mixon, but volume is often king with rushing yardage props below 80 yards. Even if the Bengals keep the predictable playcalling that they started last season, Mixon (27 rushes, 82 yards) got the second-most carries of any back in the league and ended up with the most expected fantasy points.

According to Mike Clay, Mixon paced every running back with 36 expected fantasy points. He didn't get to his expected rushing yards (122) because of that predictability I mentioned. The Bengals had a 20% rushing success rate (carries that gained 4-plus yards/first down/touchdown) on Sunday, by far the lowest in the league.

The next closet team was Seattle at 25%. Now you may be thinking, why bank on a rushing attack that started that poorly? The worst team in the league ended up at a 29% success rate last year. This number realistically won't go lower, and we know Mixon will be on the field plenty to take advantage (74% opportunity share Week 1, second-most in the league).

Take a look at the Cowboys, and this matchup yells over. Dallas is 19th in second-level yards allowed, 14th in success rate, and 18th in open field yards after Week 1. Mike McCarthy's team ranked 21st in explosive run rate allowed last season and tied for the 10th-highest yard per carry allowed (4.5 YPC).

The game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS. Fans can watch the game with fuboTV. Start your free trial here.

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