Analytics entity tabs charismatic Bills player for 2025 breakout season

The Buffalo Bills' offense ascended to one of the most-effective units in the NFL last season, but outside of Josh Allen and maybe James Cook, no one player produced superstar numbers.

Receivers like Mack Hollins and slot Khalil Shakir were instrumental in the unit's ability to produce big plays. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid also did their share of "eating" as well.

The highest preseason expectations, however, fell on rookie WR Keon Coleman for being the Bills' first selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. His charismatic personality and ability to win contested catches quickly made the Florida State product a fan favorite. There's no question, however, that the rookie's production faded down the stretch and he was less of a contributor than the aforementioned weapons.

Despite the early season success, Brandon Beane expected more, stating, "I wish he had finished the season stronger.....I would say probably was a little disappointed in the return from the injury. I did not see the same player down the stretch from a physicality, some of the things that he needs to use his size.”

Buffalo Bills, Keon Coleman — Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

While he didn't have the impact fans hoped for, particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs, he showed flashes of what he could become. In 13 games played in 2024, Coleman recorded 29 receptions on 57 targets, 556 yards and four touchdowns. Those respectable rookie statistics could've been even better if not for a wrist injury that caused him to miss four games.

Still, there is belief that Coleman will develop into what the Bills envisioned last April. In their top breakout candidates for each team, Pro Football Focus suggests that Coleman will be that guy in 2025.

"Coleman didn’t have as prolific of a first regular season as many expected, posting only a 69.4 PFF receiving grade and 556 receiving yards. But his underlying metrics — like averaging 7.7 yards after the catch per reception and 21 of his 29 catches going for first downs — are encouraging. If Coleman can reduce his 14.7% drop rate, the seventh-highest clip among qualified receivers, he very well could emerge in a receiving room that may lose Amari Cooper this offseason," said PFF.

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