Bills Central

Betting on Josh Allen to beat out Matthew Stafford, repeat as NFL MVP

The Buffalo Bills' quarterback is making a legitimate late-season push to capture the NFL MVP award for the second year in a row, and he deserves it
Ralph Ventre|
Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes the ball against the New England Patriots
Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes the ball against the New England Patriots | David Butler II-Imagn Images

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Aaron Rodgers was the last to achieve the feat, winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.

With three weeks remaining in the 2025 regular season, Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen is in position to potentially join Rodgers by repeating as MVP.

"Josh Allen's probably put himself right up there in the MVP conversation again, and if not leading it," said retired NFL tackle Andrew Whitworth on the Fitz and Whit Podcast.

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In the past week, DraftKings Sportsbook's betting odds have noticeably moved in Allen's favor although Los Angeles Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford is still a strong, but not invincible, favorite.

After posting a comeback road win over Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, Allen's odds improved to +525 to earn MVP while Stafford remained the leading favorite (-300). Stafford's advantage actually shrunk after his 457-yard performance on December 18. He currently sits at -225 with Allen creeping closer at +425. Maye (+300) is the only player between Stafford and Allen on the odds board.

Matthew Stafford
Sep 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) is brought down by Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller (40) in the third quarter at SoFi Stadium. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Why Allen deserves MVP

Quarterback-turned-analyst Dan Orlovsky, who is an official voter, made the case for Allen's candidacy following Buffalo's Week 15 win.

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"Value? Again, there's no one more valuable this year. What he's doing with that football team. Down 21-0, on the road, divisional rival, outstanding team in New England, superstar young quarterback, and, basically, he's flawless in the second half. He's the MVP right now," said Orlovsky.

Arguably, there's been no player more important to his team's success over the last six years than Allen. The dual threat quarterback is the lone player in NFL history with 40+ total touchdowns in five consecutive seasons and he's three TDs from making it an unprecedented six straight.

Josh Allen, Drake Maye
Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) meets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) on the field | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Allen vs. Stafford

While Stafford leads the NFL in pass yards (4,179) and touchdown passes (40), Allen tops him in completion percentage (70.0) and yards per attempt (8.07).

When factoring in rushing production, Allen comes pretty close to Stafford's totals. With 25 TD passes and 12 touchdown rushes, Allen (37) trails Stafford (40) by only three total TDs heading into the Bills' December 21 road game against the Cleveland Browns. He accounted for 3,811 total yards while Stafford stands at 4,177 yards having played one more game.

MORE: Bills' QB Josh Allen crowned NFL MVP in rare occurrence not seen in 37 years

Unlike Stafford, Allen hasn't had the benefit of throwing passes to top-tier wide receivers like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Although running back James Cook is having a phenomenal season in support of Allen, the Bills and the Rams both feature Top 8 rushing attacks.

There's certainly a legitimate case to be made on behalf of Allen and Stafford, but in a close race, I'm putting my money on the guy going for two in a row.

Josh Allen, Dawson Knox
Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox (88) celebrates with quarterback Josh Allen (17) after scoring a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Ralph Ventre
RALPH VENTRE

Ralph, a former college football conference administrator, brings 20+ years of media experience to Buffalo Bills ON SI. Prior to focusing on the Bills, he spent two years covering the New York Jets. Ventre initially joined the ON SI family in 2021, providing NCAA Football Championship Subdivision for NFL Draft Bible on FanNation. Ventre remains as an official voter for the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 and the annual legacy awards. The Fordham University graduate is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.