Bills vs. Chiefs Game Preview: Storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch, prediction

Another classic in the making.

This week’s AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs is sure to be a good one, as it typically is when these two teams get together under the bright lights.

The Chiefs (5-3) will head to Orchard Park on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. to take on the Bills (5-2) for what will be the 10th meeting between the two teams since the start of the 2020 season.

Buffalo rebounded from a two-game losing streak with a convincing win over the Carolina Panthers this past week and hopes to make it two wins in a row with a win over the Chiefs. Kansas City is as hot as any team in the league, having won its past three games by a combined score of 89-24.

This is as important a game as these two teams will play all season, with both trailing in their respective divisional standings entering this weekend’s action. It’s unfamiliar territory for the Bills and Chiefs, who are each accustomed to riding high atop the AFC at the midpoint of the regular season. Instead, Buffalo is looking up at the first-place New England Patriots (6-2), while Kansas City is currently trailing the Denver Broncos (6-2) in the AFC West standings entering Week 9.

With a loss this week, the Bills could fall two games back in the loss column with New England holding the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating Buffalo earlier this season. For the Chiefs, if they were to lose on Sunday, they would also fall even deeper into a hole within their own division.

This rivalry has brewed over the past half-decade, with many high-profile matchups taking place along the way. But based on where each team stands at this point of the regular season, the stakes of this week’s game are at an all-time high.

Let’s take a long look at the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s conference matchup:

Bills James Cook avoids the reaching hands of a Kansas City player during first half action against the Kansas City Chiefs in Orchard Park, Nov.17, 2024. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of Saturday morning, the Bills are 1.5-point home underdogs, per FanDuel, which is the second time they have been home ‘dogs this season. The Baltimore Ravens were also favored by 1.5 points against Buffalo in Week 1. Buffalo has covered the spread in three of seven games this season, while the Chiefs have been favored in all three of the previous road games this season, finishing 1-2 against the spread in those matchups.

Weather report

Fans will be treated to prime conditions on Sunday evening, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-40s and a less-than-slim chance of precipitation. The forecast is calling for light winds of 5 mph inside Highmark Stadium, which should allow both of these former MVP-winning quarterbacks to operate uninhibited throughout a critical contest.

MORE: Sean McDermott rules out 3 key contributors for Bills' Week 9 matchup with Chiefs

Bills injuries

The Bills have ruled out three key contributors for Sunday’s matchup, including defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (calf), wide receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle/knee) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring). In addition, starting nickel cornerback Taron Johnson (groin) is questionable to play against Kansas City, while starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver (biceps) and starting safety Taylor Rapp (knee) were both recently placed on Injured Reserve and are expected to be out the rest of the regular season.

There is some good news on the injury front, as starting linebackers Terrel Bernard (ankle) and Matt Milano (pectoral) are both expected to return after missing the Week 8 win over Carolina, which was Milano's second straight absence.

Without Jones and Oliver in the lineup, both rookie Deone Walker and offseason addition Larry Ogunjobi, who returned from suspension in Week 8, will be in line to receive starter’s snaps, while the team also signed DT Jordan Phillips to the 53-man roster earlier this week.

In Palmer’s absence, Tyrell Shavers saw an uptick in snap share this past week but failed to offer meaningful results in the passing game. And while Keon Coleman continued to see his fair share of targets, he also struggled to produce this past week. Coleman will once again be in the spotlight this week.

Rapp has been replaced by veteran Jordan Poyer, who joined Phillips in being signed to the 53-man roster this week. Rookie Jordan Hancock also rotated in alongside second-year pro Cole Bishop last week against the Panthers, but the Bills may need his services at nickel CB this week if Johnson is to miss the game.

Chiefs injuries

Kansas City has declared its starting running back Isiah Pacheco (knee) and starting left tackle Josh Simmons (personal) out for Sunday’s matchup. Pacheco sustained a knee injury during this past week’s win over the Washington Commanders and is considered week-to-week, while Simmons has missed the team’s last three games due to a personal leave of absence.

Kareem Hunt is the Chiefs’ backup running back, while the team is also equipped with seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith, who is averaging 8.7 yards on 14 receptions this season.

Simmons has been replaced by Jaylon Moore, who has performed admirably but is dealing with an illness that has left him questionable for Sunday's game. Right guard Trey Smith is also questionable due to a back injury, but Head Coach Andy Reid has said he expects Smith to play after he got in a full practice on Friday.

MORE: Sean McDermott offers scathing review of Bills' passing game in Week 8 vs. Panthers

Coaching matchup

Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Reid are plenty familiar with one another, with McDermott coaching under Reid with the Philadelphia Eagles from 1998 to 2010, serving as the team’s defensive coordinator from 2009 to 2010. Years later, the two have developed quite a rivalry as head coaches, with their teams meeting regularly as conference title contenders.

The McDermott-led Bills are 4-5 against the Chiefs in nine matchups since the 2020 season, with all four of those wins coming during the regular season and four of five losses coming during postseason play. Buffalo has won its last four regular-season matchups with the Chiefs.

It’s always fun when these two lead their teams into battle against each other, and things should be no different this time around.

Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) talks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Top storyline

Much like the coaching matchup, the quarterback matchup in this game is as good as it gets.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are currently the No. 1 and No. 2 odds-on favorites to win the NFL MVP, with the Chiefs quarterback sitting at +125 and Allen at +350 to win the award. Whichever player can outduel the other on Sunday could take a significant step toward securing the award at season’s end.

Allen has recorded 1,560 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 68% of his passes this season. He has added 49 carries for 261 yards rushing and five touchdowns rushing.

Mahomes is leading the league with 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions, and has completed 67% of his passes for 2,099 yards. He has also done damage on the ground this season, already equaling his single-season career-high with four touchdowns rushing while totaling 280 yards rushing on 46 attempts.

It’s a dead heat, with Sunday’s game serving as each player’s latest opportunity to make a push toward earning the league-wide honor.

MORE: Surprising results from Maxwell Hairston's NFL debut for Buffalo Bills vs. Panthers

Player to watch

Maxwell Hairston made his rookie debut a week ago but has yet to be tested, playing 44% of the Bills’ defensive snaps against the Panthers without being targeted in coverage. That is likely to change this week against the Chiefs, as the first-year cornerback may be in line for an increase in playing time against a talented Kansas City WR corps.

One matchup that could be fun to watch is Hairston against second-year pro Xavier Worthy, who is one of the speediest pass catchers in the NFL. Speed is also Hairston’s calling card, making the possibility of the two lining up across from each other on Sunday as enticing as it gets.

Prediction — Chiefs 28, Bills 24

It’s tough to pick the Bills to win this game. The Chiefs have a better roster with more star power and are playing much better in recent weeks, having won three straight games.

Kansas City’s early-season win over the Lions was a much more impressive win than any the Bills have pulled off this season. The combined record of the five teams Buffalo has beaten this season is 11-30.

While a Bills' win is not impossible, the Chiefs are the pick here.

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