Bills vs. Steelers Preview: Prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

Road trip!

The Buffalo Bills (7-4) have made a quick jaunt to Pittsburgh as they search for their eighth win of the season, a much-needed victory over a Steelers (6-5) team that is also fighting for playoff positioning.

Buffalo suffered a humbling 23-19 defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans last week, a loss that placed them at the No. 7 spot in the AFC standings, likely forcing them out of contention for a sixth straight divisional title. Quarterback Josh Allen was battered and bruised throughout the contest, as he was sacked a career-high eight times en route to his team'ssignificant setback.

During the Steelers’ 31-28 Week 12 loss to the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh failed to make the most of a 21-17 halftime lead while allowing Bears QB Caleb Williams to complete 19 of 35 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns to lead his team to a comeback victory.

There’s no way around it, this week is as close to a must-win as the Bills have faced all season, as Buffalo hopes to get back on track with the season’s stretch run in full swing. The Bills have enjoyed a fruitful recent history against the Steelers, and they’ll be looking to carry that forward on Sunday afternoon.

With kickoff coming up soon at 4:35 p.m., let’s first dive into the news and a few notes surrounding this exciting matchup:

Oct 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) prepares to tackle Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of Sunday morning, the Bills were 3-point favorites over the Steelers for this Week 13 tilt. It’s the sixth straight road game in which Buffalo has been favored. After last week’s defeat, their record against the spread in their five previous games as road favorites sits at 2-3. The Steelers are 2-1 as home underdogs this season.

Weather report

The weather could play a small role in this game, as winds over 15 mph are expected at kickoff. However, there is no precipitation in the forecast, while temperatures should sit in the mid-to-low 30s throughout the contest.

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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen scans the field against he Steelers. | Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bills injuries

Neither of the Bills’ starting offensive tackles will play on Sunday, as left tackle Dion Dawkins remains in the concussion protocol and right tackle Spencer Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury. Wide receiver Curtis Samuel (elbow/knee) was also declared out and subsequently placed on Injured Reserve, while linebacker Terrel Bernard will also be held out against the Steelers due to an elbow injury.

With Dawkins and Brown both out, that leaves Ryan Van Demark, Chase Lundt, Tylan Grable and Alec Anderson as potential replacements. Van Demark took over for both Dawkins and Brown when they each briefly exited this past week’s game against the Texans. Grable (concussion) returned from Injured Reserve this week, but he has been deemed questionable to play.

Also questionable are tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) and wide receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle). Kincaid was limited during Thursday and Friday’s practice, with his questionable tag leading the team to elevate Keleki Latu from the practice squad as insurance ahead of Sunday’s game.

Palmer went from limited on Wednesday to a non-participant on Thursday, before returning to limited participation on Friday. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has reported that free-agent addition Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman, who has been a healthy inactive the last two weeks, will both play against the Steelers. That would likely mean Palmer will be out this week.

Bills steelers — Aug 17, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Aaron Shampklin (33) against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Steelers injuries

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will return to action following a one-game absence caused by a fractured wrist. During the practice week, Rodgers was unable to take snaps from under center and had his ability to hand the ball off significantly impacted by his injured left wrist, which has required him to wear a cast for protection.

Elsewhere, left tackle Broderick Jones was placed on IR with a neck injury and will miss this week’s game, while defensive tackle Derrick Harmon is also out for Sunday’s contest.

Coaching matchup

Sean McDermott and Mike Tomlin are plenty familiar with one another, as the former college teammates have met four times during the regular season since McDermott took over as Bills head coach to begin the 2017 season.

In those four matchups, McDermott is 3-1, with the two teams’ last meeting three seasons ago, a 38-3 Bills victory. Buffalo has also beaten Pittsburgh once in the postseason under McDermott’s leadership, a 31-17 victory in 2024.

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Mike Tomlin, Sean McDermott — Dec 15, 2019; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (left) and Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott (right) greet each other after the game at Heinz Field. Buffalo won 17-10. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Top storyline

There are a list of matchups to watch in this game, but one that stands out is the Bills’ pass rush against an aging Rodgers.

It is unlikely we will see Rodgers under center much on Sunday, which will lead to him taking snaps out of the pistol and shotgun formations for the majority of the game. Whether or not the Bills can mount a successful pass rush against the immobile QB will go a long way in deciding this one.

The Bills have recorded just a single sack the past two games, while the Steelers’ offensive line has allowed Rodgers to be sacked 10 times in his last four games. And now, without Jones at left tackle, the 41-year-old QB should be ripe for the picking in this one. This could be a get-right game for the pass rush.

Player to watch

I am going to cheat here and go with two players, the duo of running backs that make up the Pittsburgh backfield.

Both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have found success at times this season, including this past week against the Bears, when they combined for 160 yards and a touchdown during the loss to Chicago.

The Bills’ run defense has been putrid all season long, as it has allowed 148.9 yards rushing per game through the first 12 weeks of the season. If Buffalo can’t find a way to slow down the Pittsburgh ground attack, it could be a long game for this defensive unit.

Prediction — Bills 28, Steelers 27

With both teams in dire need of a victory, this game has the makings of an instant classic.

And when the stakes are high, that’s when Josh Allen is at his best. I expect that to be the case against Pittsburgh.

While they have shown improvement in recent weeks, the Steelers are allowing the most passing yards per game (258.7) of any team in the NFL this season, and that is without allowing an opposing quarterback to throw for over 300 yards.

I think Allen will be the first QB to exceed that mark this afternoon, while using Cooks to help amplify a passing game that has struggled to find consistency this season.

Give me Allen to find the end zone twice through the air, once to Cooks, with the Bills winning by a hair.

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