Bills' TE Dalton Kincaid Draws Favorable Matchup vs. Texans

This weekend, the Buffalo Bills will be in action against the Houston Texans in a matchup of AFC juggernauts in Week 1. Houston has had the Bills' number in recent years, thanks in large part to their suffocating defense.

That has Houston being selected as the winner by multiple experts, but the Bills could have one major advantage that could help them swing the momentum in their favor. While looking ahead to every Week 1 matchup, PFF's Judah Fortgang says tight end Dalton Kincaid could do some damage thanks to his effectiveness as a route runner, plus the Texans' tendency to play zone coverage.

"Kincaid remains Buffalo’s primary receiving tight end, posting a 25.5% target rate when running a route and averaging 2.97 yards per route run across 192 routes last season. He was particularly productive against zone coverage, averaging 4.17 yards per route run against those looks," Fortgang wrote.

"That creates an appealing matchup against a Texans defense that played zone on 60.5% of opponent dropbacks last season and allowed 1.82 yards per route run over the final six weeks. Kincaid also scored five receiving touchdowns on 49 targets, establishing himself as one of Josh Allen’s primary targets near the end zone. Against a zone-heavy Houston defense featuring nickel defender Jalen Pitre, who allowed 1.24 yards per route run, Kincaid has a favorable path to another touchdown."

Kincaid has been a game-changer for Buffalo when he's on the field, but injuries have limited throughout his first three seasons in the league. After playing in 13 games in 2024 and 12 in 2025, Kincaid enters this year feeling healthier than he has since his rookie campaign.

Dalton Kincaid missed Bills' last game vs. Texans

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid trains during Buffalo Bills Minicamp. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Buffalo lost to Houston 23-19 in Week 12 last year. It was a frustrating defeat as the offense struggled to find any consistency.

It was no coincidence that their struggles came while Kincaid was sidelined. Khalil Shakir, who is also a zone beater like Kincaid, had 110 yards on eight receptions, but no other player managed more than three receptions. Backup tight end Jackson Hawes had 26 yards on two receptions while Dawson Knox had 17 yards on three catches.

Having Kincaid would have made a huge difference for the Bills, and they're fortunate to have him suiting up for this opener.

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