Keon Coleman's Floor Is Lower Than You Think After Bills' Offseason Additions

The reality is there's only one football to go around, and the Buffalo Bills' third-year wide receiver Keon Coleman won't be the first in line for touches.

Not only will the Bills need to appropriately feed reigning NFL rushing champion James Cook, wide receiver DJ Moore is likely to command 100+ targets while tight end Dalton Kincaid plays a significant role as a pass-catcher, too.

Moore, who has four career 1,150-yard receiving seasons, totaled 281 targets over two seasons under then-Carolina Panthers' offensive coordinator Joe Brady. As for Kincaid, the Bills averaged nearly one touchdown more per game when the tight end, who made TD receptions in both playoff contests, was in the lineup last season.

DJ Moore TD — Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore catches a touchdown pass against Detroit Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

All things considered, the Bills have reasons to get both players involved in the passing game early and often in 2026. That's before even mentioning shifty, reliable wide receiver Khalil Shakir, who has proven to be a legitimate threat with the ball in his hands.

The sure-handed Shakir has led the Bills in receiving yards each of the past two seasons since Stefon Diggs was traded away. He earned 100 and 95 targets, respectively, in 2024 and 2025.

Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir — Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman checks in with wide receiver Khalil Shakir on the play while they line up during first half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Add it all up, and Coleman's ceiling is the offense's fifth option in the most likely scenario moving forward. Meanwhile, his floor can seemingly only drop.

One can certainly argue that quarterback Josh Allen's legs are a more reliable option than targeting Coleman. Then, there's the potential for Joshua Palmer or rookie Skyler Bell to eventually warrant a healthy share of looks.

Keon Coleman's volume before DJ Moore

Even if Coleman were to increase his maturity and commitment to acceptable levels, he was always going to have to wait in line behind a list of more productive options in this Bills' offense. Now, Moore's arrival makes the line in front of Coleman even longer.

In the two seasons where Buffalo was viewed as lining up without a true WR1, Coleman earned 57 and 59 targets, respectively. While the young receiver's catch percentage increased from .509 as a rookie to .644 in 2025, his yards per reception dropped from 19.2 to 10.6.

In 2024, Coleman's 57 targets were third most on the team behind Shakir (100) and Kincaid (75). Last year, his 59 looks were second most behind Shakir (95) with Kincaid and Dawson Knox right behind logging 49 apiece.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman after getting tripped up stumbles towards the end zone and gets the ball into the end zone before hitting the ground for a touchdown during second-half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver on Jan. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

As a rookie, Coleman was the targeted receiver on 10.9 percent of Buffalo's pass attempts. In Year 2, that number ticked up to 11.9 percent while the Bills attempted 25 fewer passes last season.

Even with the Bills being likely to throw the ball more frequently downfield than when Sean McDermott was at the helm, any extra targets seem headed in the direction of either Moore or Kincaid.

Realistic projections for Keon Coleman

In the event that Coleman shows enough during training camp to warrant a role, he projects to see the majority of his snaps in three-WR sets. His opportunities may also be limited with the Bills' tendency to deploy multiple tight ends more often than most teams.

At this point in his trajectory, it's hard to envision Coleman being targeted more than 60 times in 2026. Barring injuries ahead of him, Coleman appears headed toward about 40 receptions on a projected 58 targets and about 490 yards.

Should the floor drop out on Coleman, he could fall into a peripheral role similar to what the undrafted Tyrell Shavers was for the Bills last year when he totaled 245 yards on 23 targets.

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