3 passing-centric Bills' player prop bets for Week 4 vs. Saints

It projects to be a sunny Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, a near-perfect setting for a Buffalo Bills' airshow.

The winless New Orleans Saints are allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass, and the thought is Bills' Josh Allen will put up some decent passing numbers in front of the home crowd.

Here are three Bills-centric individual player prop bets for the September 28 game that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. All odds are subject to change and are provided by DraftKings.

Dalton Kincaid
40+ receiving yards (+113)

So far, so good for Bills' 2023 first-round draft pick Dalton Kincaid in Year 3. The tight end is averaging 50.3 receiving yards per outing through three weeks. He also has TD receptions in two of three games.

Kincaid only failed to finish under 40 receiving yards in Week 2 against the New York Jets, pulling in 4 of 6 targets for 37 yards in a 30-10 win. The Saints' struggling defense looks vulnerable in Week 4, and Kincaid was one of five recommended tight end starts by SI Fantasy guru Michael Fabiano.

Dalton Kincaid TD — Sep 18, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) scores a touchdown against Miami Dolphins free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (29) | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Josh Allen
230+ pass yards (+114)

After leading the NFL in Week 1 passing (394), Allen has averaged only 180.5 pass yards over the last two games while neither opponent forced him to push the ball downfield.

The Saints' defense has been surprisingly solid against the run. Through three weeks, they rank sixth on the circuit by limiting opponents to 3.6 yards per rush. That number could inspire the Bills to open it up on what should be a beautiful day weatherwise at Highmark Stadium. If he chooses, Allen should have his way with.

Joshua Palmer
Anytime touchdown (+295)

It's going to happen eventually, right? So, why not a Week 4 home game for Palmer's first-ever touchdown in a Bills' uniform. The Canadian-born wide receiver was Buffalo's highest profiled free-agent addition this past offseason, and he seemed to quickly develop a good chemistry with Allen.

Josh Palmer target — Buffalo Bills wide receiver Joshua Palmer gets held by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jaire Alexander while trying to catch the pass at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 7, 2025. The Ravens received a penalty for the pass interference. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's concerning that Palmer only saw one target - a five-yard catch - in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins, but the Bills employed a ball-control, short-range passing game in the 31-21. With Buffalo likely to cruise against the inferior Saints, expect at least four offensive touchdowns for Allen and Co. with one potentially going to Palmer.

No surprise for anyone following my weekly prop plays, but I also like Dawson Knox to find the end zone (+600).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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