Bills Well Behind Rest of NFL in Critical Offensive Stat That Was Costly vs. Patriots

Not surprisingly, Buffalo failed on a crucial two-point attempt against New England that wound up being a game-altering play during Sunday's tilt in the AFC East at Highmark Stadium.

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Despite their current record, the Buffalo Bills have had several miscues over the course of the first four weeks of the 2026 NFL regular season.

And, while some observers overlooked those mishaps in September, maybe they shouldn’t have: everything hasn’t been hunky-dory.

Plays that nearly cost the Bills on the road in Week 1 against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium, as well as at home in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers at Highmark Stadium, caught up to first-year head coach Joe Brady’s squad this past Sunday against the New England Patriots in Orchard Park, resulting in a critical loss in the AFC East.

Bills’ problems beginning to pile up after loss to Patriots 

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' offensive tackle Spencer Brown (79) walks off the field during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even if some fans may not want to admit to the fact, it was a game that had massive playoff implications written all over it for Buffalo in spite of the calendar only reading October . . . and the players let it slip through their fingertips, which is awfully similar to last fall when the team fell short to New England at home in primetime on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in Week 5.

The parallels between the two contests and subsequent results are uncanny.

However, instead of entering this October’s game against the Patriots on a four-game winning streak that included outscoring their opponents by a total count of 133-90, this time around the Bills were heading into the matchup on a three-game run after outscoring their opponents 101-78 through the month of September.

And, although it might not seem like much to some, the National Football League is a game of inches, so going from an average margin of victory of 10.8 points in 2025 prior to the first Patriots’ matchup down to an average of 7.7 points per contest in 2026 is undeniably notable.

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With Jim Leonhard’s young defensive unit still adjusting to a new scheme on the other side of the operation, the room for error is seemingly smaller this year for quarterback Josh Allen and his teammates this season, and that proved to be the case once again on Sunday against New England.

This time, though, the “smoke detectors” that Brady had been referring to since the preseason finally sounded the alarms over the weekend, and it’s something that needs to be fixed in a hurry.

Bills’ blunder vs. Patriots brings up particular area of concern

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' wide receiver Keon Coleman (0) celebrates with Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One such area that appears to be in need of some serious change? 

The team’s two-point conversion efficiency, which wound up costing Buffalo late in the fourth quarter following a go-ahead, 34-yard touchdown pass from Allen to third-year wide receiver Keon Coleman with 4:27 remaining in the game.

After the trip across the goal line, Buffalo led 26-21 and chose to try a two-point attempt in order to make it a seven-point affair, which could’ve made things a bit more difficult for the Patriots on the other side.

The result, though, was an incomplete pass from Allen to wide receiver Joshua Palmer, which really had no chance of completion at all. And, what’s even more frustrating is the fact that film review shows Buffalo’s gunslinger missed tight end Dalton Kincaid on the play, who was wide open right in front of his quarterback’s eyes after the playmaker initially stayed in to block.

Instead of the simple toss for a completion to Kincaid, however, Allen chose to try and fit a ball in between two defenders in the back of the end zone to Palmer, and  . . .  it was a bit of a frustrating head-scratcher for fans, to say the least.

Sep. 27, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; A Buffalo Bills' fan looks on in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“You study what you expect to get from the defense, kind of what their two-point situations (have previously) presented defensively, (and) you hope to put together a play that you feel is going to be successful against that,” Bills’ offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said Monday at One Bills Drive.

“There’s also times where, as a coaching staff, you’re studying the two-point plays that are being run around the league and see if they fit with your personnel. But, obviously, we’ve got to do a better job there.”

With that said, should it have really been that much of a surprise to anyone invested in the critical moment that Buffalo failed to convert? 

Bills’ offense well behind other NFL teams in critical stat

Buffalo Bills' head coach Joe Brady (left), offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. (center), quarterbacks coach Bo Hardegree, and quarterback Josh Allen (17) talk after practice at training camp at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford, New York. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Although Carmichael Jr. is in his first season as offensive coordinator in Western New York in conjunction with first-year head coach Joe Brady, when looking at the recent stats from the Bills, maybe the failure shouldn’t have been much of a shocker to anyone at all, even in spite of the addition of Brady’s new offensive counterpart.

Although all 32 teams in the NFL collectively had the lowest two-point conversion success rate in the last 15 years heading into the 2025 season at just 41%, Buffalo was well below that rate last year.

According to the TeamRankings’ database, the Bills were just 28th in the league one season ago when it came to successful two-point conversions at a rate of just 22.22%, which was down from a success rate of 75% in 2023 and 50% in 2024.

Furthermore, what’s even more concerning? 

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after a play during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Well, since Buffalo has now failed on both of its two-point attempts so far this season after Sunday’s screwup against New England, the team’s now just 2-of-11 on two-point tries since September 2025, and one of those successful tries occurred when former backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was in the game against the New York Jets in Week 18 last season.

Needless to say, the Bills are trending in a terrible direction when it comes to the backpocket play, and it’s not something to take lightly.

Buffalo must properly utilize weapons more down near goal line

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' head coach Joe Brady looks on during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Who knows when the team might need to convert in such a critical moment later on this year?

It might even happen in the playoffs . . . if Buffalo can reach that point of the season.

And, although it’s unclear exactly what needs to happen in order to correct the issue moving forward, utilizing players like the previously mentioned Coleman, as well as Kincaid, who were both drafted in part due to their supposed red-zone skills, might be a good start.

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' wide receiver Keon Coleman (0) hauls in a touchdown while being covered by New England Patriots' cornerback Charles Woods (22) during the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Using Allen’s trusty legs and overwhelming brute strength would be helpful, too.

For some reason, seemingly none of those players have been utilized as much as they should be in that area of the field throughout their careers, though, at least not when it pertains to the two-point attempts, anyway.

With that in mind, something’s got to give. Points are precious in the NFL, and Buffalo simply can’t continue its struggles in this area going forward.

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