Three Reasons Bills Will Steal Primetime Win from Rams on Monday Night Football

Buffalo enters the game coming off an uncharacteristic loss, but there are a few reasons to be optimistic about the AFC East squad bouncing back on the road against Los Angeles on Monday Night Football.

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Tonight’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams on ESPN’s Monday Night Football is setting up to be a good one.

With kickoff slated for 8:15 p.m. ET, it won’t be long before the drama begins to unfold.

Despite being an early-season tilt, the ramifications of a disappointing result for either squad could be detrimental. Here's how the Sports Illustrated panel sees it shaking out on the primetime stage.

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) walks off the field following a loss against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

With a loss, the Rams face the reality of falling three games behind in the NFC West standings below the undefeated San Francisco 49ers, whom Los Angeles already lost to in the season opener down in Australia, while the Bills would be presented with the devastating realization of being leapfrogged in the AFC East by the previously down-and-out New England Patriots just two weeks after Buffalo had finished September undefeated in its own right.

Here's to hoping the Bills can take care of business and retain first place, and here are the reasons Bills Mafia should feel confident in that happening.

1. Josh Allen has a history of ‘lighting it up’ versus L.A., especially at SoFi

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) rolls out to pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the first half at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Although Bills’ starting quarterback Josh Allen has been struggling a little bit as of late, the former 2024 NFL MVP and the offense were on a rather historic statistical pace through the first three weeks of the 2026 season.

The dazzling display on the field even had some outside observers seeing a Super Bowl title in Buffalo’s not-so-distant future. But, after last week’s divisional debacle against New England where a boneheaded fourth-quarter throw into double coverage by Allen proved costly late in the game, those previous supporters are starting to hop back off Buffalo’s circling bandwagon.

Should they, though?

Well, given that the former Wyoming gunslinger has a 2-1 career record against the Rams while outscoring Sean McVay’s squad by a tally of 108-86, maybe fans and national skeptics shouldn’t be so pessimistic about the AFC East squad’s chances out West on Monday Night Football.

Sep. 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) drops back to pass during the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports

And, further evidence of that seemingly discredited notion is Allen’s incredible stat line against Los Angeles, which includes 950 passing yards, a 71.3% completion percentage, 10 passing touchdowns vs. just three interceptions, and an average passer rating of 121.3 according to StatMuse.

He’s also produced 146 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 24 attempts for an average of 6.1 yards per carry.

Needless to say, if Allen lives up to that standard later on this evening, then Buffalo will have a chance no matter how bad its defense might perform against Stafford and Co. at SoFi Stadium.

2. Even if Josh Allen struggles, Bills can generate yardage with James Cook III 

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' running back James Cook (4) rushes during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As mentioned above, quarterback Josh Allen has a history of having statistical success against the Rams, regardless of the venue.

And, it’s a definite reason for optimism amongst Bills Mafia.

However, what if Allen were to struggle on the road in primetime? Would Buffalo be out of luck?

Well, maybe not.

Heading into Week 5, the Rams (145.5 YPG) surrendered just the second-fewest passing yards in the league behind only the Seattle Seahawks, but defensive coordinator Chris Shula’s unit has also allowed opposing teams to rush for an average of 102 yards per game, which only ranks 11th in the NFL comparatively.

For further perspective, in spite of seeing a minimal workload in the season opener versus Los Angeles, San Francisco 49ers’ starting running back Christian McCaffrey managed to rack up 68 rushing yards on just 10 carries for an astonishing average of 6.8 yards per attempt back on September 10 down in Australia against Los Angeles. Meanwhile, 49ers’ backup running back Kaelon Black (14 attempts, 65 yards, 4.6 YPC), quarterback Brock Purdy (5 attempts, 29 yard, 5.8 YPC), and wide receiver Deebo Samuel (1 attempt, 12 yards, 12.0 YPC) accounted for 106 yards on the ground during the season-opening international affair, as well. And, it was a game where the 49ers dismantled the Rams by a score of 27-7.

Needless to say, Buffalo should try to further exploit Los Angeles in that phase of the game on Monday night. 

After all, Bills’ starting running back James Cook III (70 attempts, 421 yards, 6.0 YPC) is still ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards heading into the upcoming primetime matchup despite being a game behind other fellow top runners like Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson, Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs, and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry.

3. Rams were worst in NFL in field-position battle heading into Week 5

Oct. 4, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles' wide receiver Britain Covey (85) returns a punt against the Los Angeles Rams at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bills ON SI has already covered Los Angeles’ struggles in the special-teams department so far this season, highlighting how it could be an underlying key factor during tonight’s primetime intraconference contest.

However, when digging even deeper, the area looks even more fruitful for the Bills—particularly from a field-position perspective—heading into Monday night.

According to the FTN Fantasy Football database, Los Angeles ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of special teams and opponents’ field position, while Buffalo ranked seventh heading into the week.

A spot the Bills may get some advantage going into Monday Night: special teams and field position.

Bills currently rank 7th
Rams 32nd

According to @FTNFantasy DVOA. pic.twitter.com/VUq180Paye

— Aaron Quinn (@AaronQuinn716) October 10, 2026

Clearly, it’s an area that Bills’ special teams coordinator Jeff Rodgers and Co. need to take advantage of this evening.

Furthermore, fans should keep a watchful eye on Buffalo’s punt returner Greg Dortch. He could be a difference-maker in the matchup.

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