NFL Experts Lean Slightly Toward Rams over Bills in Monday Night Football MVP Edition

It's being billed as a potential Super Bowl LXI preview, but both teams have been far from perfect over the season's first month.

Coming off a frustrating Week 4 loss, the Buffalo Bills (3-1) visit the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) on October 12 for a Monday Night Football special.

Unfortunately, one particular matchup doesn't bode well for the Bills. While Buffalo features the NFL's 27th-ranked defense (372.3), the Rams enter boasting the No. 1 offense in the league (417.0).

In particular, the Bills' secondary has struggled mightily against the pass while Los Angeles owns the second most-productive passing offense (290.3) on the circuit.

“I think, their offense and defense, they complement each other very well," said Bills' starting quarterback Josh Allen. "They've put a lot of resources into their defense and who they've brought in. Obviously, in secondary, making trades. McDuffie is a heck of a player. [Defensive tackle] Aaron Donald, he's Aaron Donald. He's back."

In a game that features the two most-recent NFL MVP recipients, Buffalo's best path to victory is likely having Allen out-duel Matthew Stafford and the Rams' high-flying attack.

As for what the experts believe will happen, Sports Illustrated's weekly prediction panel slightly favors the Rams. Three panelists back the Bills, while five of the voters pick the home team to hold serve on Monday night. As always, the SI MMQB weekly game predictions are straight up picks.

The Rams enter Monday's matchup as a 3.5-point home favorite over the Bills on the DraftKings betting line. It's the first time this season, Buffalo is an underdog.

Josh Allen vs. Rams' Defense

Allen has been marvelous in his last two visits to face the Rams. In December 2024, he accounted for 424 yards of total offense and six touchdowns (3 pass, 3 rush) as the Bills suffered a 44-42 road loss.

Two years prior, in what was the Rams' first game following their Super Bowl LVI victory, Allen powered the Bills to a 31-10 win by producing 353 yards of total offense and four touchdowns (3 pass, 1 rush).

While these teams have seen significant change since the last time they met, the opportunity for Allen to thrive remains. Still, the 2024 NFL MVP knows it won't be easy.

"We're gonna have our hands full," said Allen.

The Bills will need to effectively protect Allen to allow the receivers to have a chance against a stingy Rams' secondary. Los Angeles limits opponents to a league-low 4.58 yards per pass attempt.

"Again, they present a lot of different challenges, a lot of different looks, pressure from kind of all over," said Allen.

It's worth noting that the Bills will not have wide receiver Josh Palmer for Monday night. With Palmer ruled out due to a practice injury, fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell is set to make his debut. Additionally, Bills' WR1 DJ Moore is officially questionable to play after reaggravating an AC joint sprain.

Sep 27, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver DJ Moore (2) runs with the ball after making a catch against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

MMQB Game Picks (Week 5)
Bills at Rams on MNF

Albert Breer, senior reporter
Pick: Bills

Eva Geitheim, staff writer
Pick: Bills

Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Pick: Bills

Mike Kadlick, senior news writer
Pick: Rams

Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Pick: Rams

Conor Orr, senior writer
Pick: Rams

John Pluym, managing editor
Pick: Rams

Matt Verderame, staff writer
Pick: Rams

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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Josh Allen vs. Rams' Defense

MMQB Game Picks (Week 5)Bills at Rams on MNF

MMQB Game Picks (Week 5)
Bills at Rams on MNF