This Key Factor in Bills at Rams Matchup Could Determine Monday Night Football Result

The third phase of the game proved to be the deciding factor during the last meeting between Buffalo and Los Angeles two years ago, and the statistics lean toward it being a key element once again at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football.

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Players await the start of a play at the line of scrimmage as Buffalo Bills' long snapper Reid Ferguson (69) prepares to hike the ball during an NFL game between the Bills and the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Buffalo Bills have a tall task ahead of them this week.

Not only does the team have to travel all the way across the country to an unfamiliar environment for just its second road matchup of the season after a three-game home stand, but the Bills will also be forced with doing so under the pressure of the primetime lights of Monday Night Football.

Furthermore, the opponent is reigning MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, a team coming off a crucial conference victory in less-than-ideal conditions at Lincoln Financial Field versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

Buffalo looking to avoid two-game skid in Los Angeles

Oct. 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And, Buffalo will be doing so with the hope of not dropping two straight games of its own, as the team just fell short against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium in devastating fashion last Sunday.

However, with that in mind, if they can win at SoFi Stadium, then the Bills should be fine moving forward in the minds of many. 

But, if they lose to the Rams, then there will undoubtedly be more than a few eyebrows being raised amongst the fanbase, as well as from outside observers, regarding just what type of operation first-year head coach Joe Brady is running in Western New York this fall.

Bills ON SI has already covered a few points of concern on Buffalo’s roster heading into Monday night’s intraconference affair, as well as some areas that the team might be able to exploit against Los Angeles.

Underlying key factor for Bills on Monday night

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; L.A. Rams' tight end Hunter Long (84) celebrates with tight end Colby Parkinson (86) after scoring a touchdown on a blocked punt against the Buffalo Bills in the first half at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

There is one other phase of the upcoming matchup, though, that seems to be falling a little under the radar in terms of its importance toward the outcome of the nationally-televised meeting between the Rams and the Bills on Monday night in Inglewood, California.

What is it?

Well, it’s special teams. And, more specifically, in the area of punt returns.

For those who might not remember, the last time the Bills traveled to SoFi Stadium to take on Los Angeles in December 2024, Buffalo fell short to its NFC counterpart by a mark of 44-42.

It was a high-scoring event from both offenses as Stafford and fellow quarterback Josh Allen combined for 744 yards of total offense and eight touchdowns between the two of them, but in the end it was the third phase of the game that ended up being the deciding factor that turned the tide in favor of head coach Sean McVay’s Rams.

Sep. 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams' head coach Sean McVay reacts to a play in the second quarter against the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports

Although the West Coast squad won by less than a field goal, which is ironic considering Buffalo’s recent troubles with two-point conversions, the tipping point in the contest came when linebacker Jacob Hummel blocked a kick from former Bills’ punter Sam Martin in the second quarter with just under 13 minutes remaining before halftime.

Backup tight end Hunter Long recovered the punt at Buffalo’s 22-yard line and subsequently returned the ball all the way to the end zone to put the Rams up 17-7 with 12:29 remaining in the quarter.

And, as a result, the Bills were never able to recover despite outscoring Los Angeles by a margin of 35-27 the rest of the way.

Bills’ Hoecht remembers particular turning point in previous matchup

Dec. 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; An L.A. Rams' fan in a Christmas costume reacts during the game between the Buffalo Bills and Rams at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Former Rams’ defender Michael Hoecht, who is now on the other side with Buffalo this time around, remembers the outing fondly.

He wasn’t on the field for the particular sequence mentioned above, but it’s definitely not lost on him when it comes to just how crucial every aspect of that contest at SoFi Stadium was two winters ago.

“Personally, I’ve had the game circled on my calendar for a while. It’s obviously cool because I still know a lot of people in the building. But, I feel like (people) have heard this message from me before, you know—you can’t ride the wave of, like, (some) games are bigger than others—it’s just you’ve got to stay consistent,” Bills’ outside linebacker Michael Hoecht, who played 36 defensive snaps and 14 snaps on special teams for the Rams in that game two years ago according to Pro Football Reference, said following practice on Thursday.

Dec. 28, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Former Los Angeles Rams' outside linebacker Michael Hoecht (97) lines up against the Arizona Cardinals in the first half at SoFi Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

“Special teams was the difference in the game. It was the blocked punt. So, I mean, you never know which play it is in the game that is going to decide it.”

And, although Hoecht added that he hopes he and his defensive teammates can—somehow, some way—be the ultimate deciding factors on Monday, there’s some further truth to the reference of the importance of special teams when digging a little deeper into Los Angeles’ statistics this season.

Punting, punt coverage points of weakness for Rams

Aug. 22, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; L.A. Rams' long snapper Joe Cardona (49) and punter Ethan Evans (42) have a discussion during a preseason game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Through four weeks, Rams’ fourth-year punter Ethan Evans has had only one punt downed inside the 20-yard line and, in the three games that Los Angeles’ special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone’s unit has faced a punt return, the team has also allowed an average of 13.73 yards per attempt.

While that may not seem like a lot to some, the highest average in the NFL right now amongst players with at least five returns isn’t too far off from that number as Minnesota’s Myles Price has an average of 20.1 YPR.

Furthermore, three of the top five returners in the league, however, have average return rates ranging between 13.5 and 13.8 yards per attempt according to StatMuse.

And, in addition to that fact, in back-to-back weeks Los Angeles has allowed punt returns well over Price’s league-high rate as Denver’s Kolbe Katis managed to bring one back 28 yards in Week 3, while Philadelphia’s Britain Covey had a return of 41 yards just last Sunday.

So, when peeling back that extra layer, it’s clear to see that—whether it be protecting up front for rookie punter Tommy Doman Jr., or blocking for wide receiver Greg Dortch in the return game—it’s going to be prudent for Buffalo to stay consistent, as Hoecht mentioned on Thursday, during the punting portions of the evening, especially when Dortch is standing back there.

Who knows? 

There could be a play made that breaks the game wide open for the Bills.

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