3 stats may define Buffalo Bills' Week 5 matchup with New England Patriots

The Bills' new punter will be tested, while something will have to give in the running game and Drake Maye's efficiency will be tough for Buffalo to defend.

Jan 5, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talk on the field before the start of the game | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills have begun their preparation for a Week 5 matchup with the New England Patriots, a meeting that will either give the Bills a stranglehold on the AFC East or open things up for the Patriots to make a midseason push toward a division title.

There are plenty of matchups to watch in this divisional tilt, including budding quarterback Drake Maye going up against the reigning MVP Josh Allen, the two teams’ differing strengths in the run game, and Buffalo’s new punter facing off against a fierce New England return game.

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Let’s dive into three stats that may define Sunday night’s contest.

Drake Maye’s Efficiency

Sep 28, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to throw against the Carolina Panthers during the first half | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The former first-round pick has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season, recording a league-best completion percentage of 74% during his team's 2-2 start. Maye will be the best quarterback Buffalo has faced since Week 1, when the Bills outlasted the Baltimore Ravens and former MVP Lamar Jackson.

With that said, Maye has not faced a pass defense at the level of Buffalo’s this season, as the Bills have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL (125.8 yards per game) through four weeks. Whichever side — Maye or the Bills’ pass defense — gets the better of the other in this game will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

Bills’ Run Game vs. Patriots’ Run Defense

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook runs with the ball during second half action of the Bills home game against the New Orleans Saints in Orchard Park on Sept. 28, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Behind James Cook, the Bills’ rushing attack has been the best in the NFL, averaging 163.5 yards per game, which is nearly 10 yards better than the second-best rushing team, the Washington Commanders (154.8 YPG). Cook has gashed his way to three consecutive 100-plus-yard rushing performances while also scoring a rushing touchdown in his last eight games, a franchise record.

However, on Sunday, Cook is likely to be tested more so than he has all season, with the Patriots coming equipped with the third-best rush defense in the league. New England has allowed just 77.5 yards per game on the ground this season, which trails only the Cleveland Browns (70.3) and the Green Bay Packers (77.5).

If the Bills’ top running back can continue to cook, Buffalo should have no trouble moving the ball on Sunday. But if New England remains stout up front in this week’s matchup, that would make life much more difficult on Allen and company.

Punting Game

Sep 28, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Marcus Jones (25) returns a punt for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Bills brought in their third new punter of the season heading into the matchup with New England, as Mitch Wishnowsky is now the team’s starter at the position after ankle and foot injuries sustained by Cameron Johnston landed him on injured reserve. Wishnowsky appeared in nine games for the San Francisco 49ers a season ago, his sixth year with the team, before missing the final eight games of the year due to a back injury.

During his final season in San Francisco, Wishnowsky averaged just 36.3 net yards per punt, the lowest mark of his career. Buffalo will be hoping for more from the seven-year veteran as they take on the top punt-return unit in the NFL.

The Patriots are averaging an NFL-best 28.9 yards per punt return through four weeks, with Marcus Jones proving to be one of the most electrifying return men in the league. Jones recorded an 87-yard punt return for a touchdown during New England’s Week 4 win over the Carolina Panthers.

Not often is ample focus placed on the punt/punt return game entering a divisional matchup of this magnitude. But with Buffalo’s revolving door at the position, coupled with Jones’ elite return ability, special teams will be under the microscope on Sunday night.

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