Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The defending AFC champion Bengals face a first-place schedule this season and their projected wins total at SI Sportsbook is 9.5 wins.

Author:
Matt Ehalt
Publish date:
Aug 29, 2022

In this story:

Cincinnati Bengals

Here’s a sentence that still seems jarring: The entire AFC is coming for the Bengals.

Cincinnati, yes, Cincinnati, enters the 2022 season as the reigning AFC champion and came just one stop away from being Super Bowl champion.

These Bengals aren’t your parents’ Bengals, not with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon anchoring an electric offense.

That quartet produced the franchise’s first winning season (10-7) and AFC North title since 2015 before marching to the Super bowl.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: GB | MIN | CHI | DET | Division Odds
AFC North Over/Under Wins Total: PIT | CLE | BAL | Division Odds

The fourth-seeded Bengals bested the Raiders at home in the wild-card round, upset the top-seeded Titans in overtime in the divisional round and matched the biggest comeback in AFC championship game history to stun the Chiefs.

Cincinnati then led the Rams with less than two minutes to go, but some penalties and Cooper Kupp ended its chances at a storybook finish.

That success has the Bengals entering this season in a much different state than last year when expectations were low.

The Bengals entered 2021 fresh off selecting Chase with the fifth pick and had a fourth-place schedule to deal with. Now, the Bengals will deal with the AFC divisional winners and have a difficult crossover game against the Cowboys.

Cincinnati bolstered its offensive line in the offseason after watching Burrow get manhandled during the postseason, but questions remain about the defense. The Bengals are actually slightly behind the Ravens in AFC North future odds at SI Sportsbook and are tied for the sixth-best odds in the loaded AFC.

SI Sportsbook has set the Bengals’ over/under at 9.5 wins with the over juiced to -133 odds. Let’s see which bet we like for Burrow and company.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase makes a catch during practice at the NFL football team’s training facility in Cincinnati, Thursday, Aug. 4, 2022. — Aaron Doster/AP

Cincinnati Benglas Over/Under: 9.5 - O (-133) | U (+105)

2021 record: 10-7; First AFC North; 4-seed; Lost Super Bowl vs. Rams
AFC North future odds: +160 (Second)
AFC future odds: +1000 (Tied-sixth)
Super Bowl future odds: +2000 (Tied-11th)

Key additions: OL Alex Cappa, OL Ted Karras, OL La’el Collins
Key losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, DT Larry Ogunjobi, WR Auden Tate

All Bengals offseason grade: A-

The Bengals desperately needed to address their offensive line, and that’s exactly what they did in free agency. Adding Cappa, Karras and Collins should do wonders for Joe Burrow, who was sacked 70 times in 20 games last season (including playoffs).
Cincinnati kept most of its starters and has one of the deeper rosters in the NFL. The Bengals added young, talented players such as safety Dax Hill and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt in the draft. The Bengals only have three players on their roster over the age of 30, and two of them are the punter (Kevin Huber, 36) and long-snapper (Clark Harris, 37).
They still have some question marks on the offensive and defensive lines, but the Bengals are better, at least on paper, than they were a year ago.—James Rapien

SCHEDULE

Week 1: Steelers
Week 2: At Cowboys
Week 3: At Jets
Week 4: Dolphins
Week 5: At Ravens
Week 6: At Saints
Week 7: Falcons
Week 8: At Browns
Week 9: Panthers
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: At Steelers
Week 12: At Titans
Week 13: Chiefs
Week 14: Browns
Week 15: At Buccaneers
Week 16: At Patriots
Week 17: Bills
Week 18: Ravens

The Bengals have their work cut out for them with this schedule. This is a tough slate, particularly after the bye with six playoff teams from last year.

The first-place schedule includes the Chiefs and Titans, and AFC East and NFC South foes. Five of those eight teams should contend for a playoff berth.

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Let’s start, as we always do, with the division.

Cincinnati went 4-2 in the AFC North last year, sweeping the Steelers and Ravens but being swept by the Browns. One of those losses came with backups in for Week 18.

The Ravens have the same divisional odds as the Bengals, and we’ll project a split there despite last year’s sweep. Those results seemed like an anomaly.

It’s hard to project the Steelers and Browns games. The Steelers seem due for a down year, but it’s unlikely a Mike Tomlin team will be a pushover. Deshaun Watson—suspended for 11 games for alleged sexual misconduct—will miss the Week 8 game in Cleveland but will be back for the Week 14 game in Cincinnati.

The Bengals still can go 3-1 against the Steelers and Browns, leaving Cincinnati with an identical 4-2 division record as last year.

For their remaining AFC games, the Bengals visit the Jets, Patriots and Titans and welcome the Chiefs, Dolphins and Bills. That’s a manageable road slate and a fortunate home slate getting both Kansas City and Buffalo in Cincinnati.

It’s possible the Bengals could go 3-0 in that road slate but let’s play it safe and go with a 2-1 mark. We’ll also go with 2-1 at home, assuming the Bengals split the Chiefs and Bills. The Bengals should beat the Dolphins at home early in the year.

That has us at eight projected wins (out of 12 games) with the NFC South and the road game at Dallas on tap.

Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow throws a pass throws a pass during NFL football training camp in Cincinnati, Monday, Aug. 15, 2022. — Aaron Doster/AP

Cincinnati will handle the Falcons and Panthers, and that gets us to 10 wins. The Bengals are three-point underdogs when they visit the Buccaneers, while they are currently a one-point favorite for their road game against the Saints.

Again: We still have 10 wins even if we project 0-2 for those last two games.

The remaining game is in Dallas, and the Bengals are 1.5-point underdogs. We can see the Bengals losing this one after starting the season with a win over the Steelers.

This Mike and the Mad Dog style projection would produce a final record of 10-7 and potentially 11-6 if we project a split of the Buccaneers/Saints games.

Let’s recap to see if we can convince ourselves to take the under at +105 odds.

AFC North: 4-2 - Seems right but 5-1 is in play.
AFC East, Chiefs, Titans: 4-2 - We can possibly go 3-3 here if we project 1-3 against the Chiefs, Titans, Bills and Patriots instead of 2-2.
NFC South/Dallas: 2-3 - We’re being cautious at 2-3 but 3-2 is certainly feasible with either a win at New Orleans or Dallas. We should add that going safe here can offset being more aggressive in the non-division AFC games.

For the under to be the bet here, you have to believe the Bengals are going to regress this season and go 3-3 in the division, 3-3 in the other AFC games and no better than 3-2 in the NFC games (which includes two very winnable games).

As much as those odds are tempting, we’d rather invest in the Bengals being among the upper-echelon AFC teams and winning double-digit games. The -133 odds at SI Sportsbook aren’t prohibitive enough to avoid taking this bet.