Latest Big Trade Could Have a Big Impact on an Alabama Player, But Not the One You're Thinking
Another week meant another major trade that could have dramatic repercussions when it comes to the 2021 NFL Draft, only this time the shakeup didn't directly include any high first-round picks.
On Monday, the Carolina Panthers acquired Sam Darnold from the New York Jets, the No. 3 overall selection in 2018. It also didn't cost them a lot in making the move, giving up a 2021 sixth-round selection, plus a second-round pick and fourth-round selection in 2022.
Without a proven quarterback on the roster, the Jets are expected to take BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the second-overall selection, after the Jacksonville Jaguars add Trevor Lawrence.
The Panthers move could greatly impact an Alabama player in the draft, but probably not the one you're thinking.
Nope, it's not quarterback Mac Jones.
In their latest mock drafts, both Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network and Todd McShay of ESPN both had Jones going to San Francisco at No. 3, after the 49ers traded their 12th-overall pick, a 2022 third-round compensatory pick and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 for the Miami Dolphins No. 3 overall selection.
The word is out that Jones is their guy.
"I am surprised that everything you hear points toward Jones being the Niners' pick at No. 3," Jeremiah wrote after making a lot of changes with his third mock draft published Tuesday.
Like Jeremiah, McShay has other quarterbacks rated ahead of Jones, and still thinks there's a chance the Davey O'Brien winner could slide all the way to New England at No. 15 of the 49ers doesn't take him. Both both say the chatter is so strong that they've changed their projections.
“Honestly, I’m fascinated to see where he goes," McShay said. "And if he winds up in San Francisco, I think it’s a perfect spot for him. He has one of the best offensive minds in the game in Kyle Shanahan to help develop him quickly.”
He further explained:
“If you look at the analytics, the three most important things, to me, are what's your QBR when you're pressured, what’s your QBR when blitzed and what’s your QBR when throwing the ball 20-plus yards down the field. He's No. 1 in all three categories. He has a 78.3 QBR when pressured, 97.3 QBR when blitzed and he completed 61 percent of his throws 21-plus yards down the field. It matches up with what you see on tape.”
So who might greatly benefit from the Panthers' trade?
Cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
There's been a lot of speculation that he could be selected by Dallas at No. 10, and reunite with former Crimson Tide cornerback Trevon Diggs. However, Carolina no longer needs a quarterback at No. 8, and there's growing talk that Denver at No. 9 wants to give Andrew Luck another year.
If those three teams don't trade down there's almost no way that Surtain doesn't get selected. The Panthers would probably have an agonizing decision between taking the first offensive tackle or Surtain, although it's a very strong draft for offensive linemen.
However, here's what our All Panthers site wrote about Surtain last month:
"The potential for Patrick Surtain II is through the roof. He's great in man coverage, zone coverage, soft coverage, press coverage, you name it, he's good at it. In my opinion, Surtain II is arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the last five or so drafts. As a matter of fact, I think he would have been a top 15-20 pick if he were allowed to be drafted following his freshman season. After just one year in Tuscaloosa, you knew right away that he was going to be special. Not only does he have great cover skills but he has great instincts. He knows how to take away passing lanes, bait the quarterback into throwing a bad pass, and has a good feel of what route the receiver will be running pre-snap. If Carolina is to add a quarterback via free agency or trade, Surtain II will certainly be in the mix when they're on the clock at No. 8. The Panthers lack depth at corner and will need to have a guy to line up opposite of Donte Jackson long-term. Rasul Douglas may be the team's short-term option, but Surtain II is someone who could be your answer for the next 8-10 years."
So what's being selected No. 8 in the draft expected to be worth this year? Roughly $20 million, including a signing bonus just under $12 million.
Don't forget about the Cowboys
Remember that whole thing about Surtain telling reporters at his pro day in Tuscaloosa that "I haven't talked to the Cowboys yet."
Right. Now check out what Cowboys Maven reported:
"I talk to Diggs a lot of the time,'' Surtain told Michael Irvin on the Hall-of-Fame receiver's PodcastOne podcast. "He’s been telling me they have a lot of interest in me.''
Enough to move up to get him? We'll see. The first round of the draft is slated for April 29.
Will Waddle roar?
The speculation is growing that the Lions may be zeroing in on Jaylen Waddle with the No. 7 pick.
With the Lions trading for Jared Goff, the chance to pair him with the most explosive player in the draft makes a lot of sense.
“GPS stuff is going to be big this year because we haven’t had as much verified numbers, and talking to some teams around the league, Waddle had the fastest GPS of any receiver in the country,” Jeremiah said. “Your eyes aren’t deceiving you when you watch him. He’s freaky fast."
Incidentally, today could be a huge day for Waddle as the medical checkups part of what was supposed to the NFL combine begin in Indianapolis.
More draft notes ...
• The big rumor this week is that the Falcons are "open to moving" out of the No. 4 spot in the 2021 draft, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Atlanta has reportedly received trade calls regarding the pick from multiple teams, but otherwise would probably making a decision between taking the quarterback of the future or tight end Kyle Pitts.
• Former general manager Mike Tannenbaum did a mock draft for ESPN, picking the first round and having five quarterbacks selected including Jones to the 49ers at No. 3. The stunner for Alabama fans was at No. 27, the Baltimore Ravens and guard Deonte Brown.
From Albert Breer's MMQB: Quarterback coach David Morris and Jones had two different scripts for Alabama's second pro day, one with DeVonta Smith and the other without. Smith got some work in with Jones two Saturdays ago, three days before the second pro day, and on Monday teams were notified that Smith wasn’t planning to work out. Jones, Morris and Jones’s long-time coach Joe Dickinson didn’t even bring the script with Smith incorporated with them to campus on Tuesday. So when Smith decided he was going to work out after all? “Me and Joe Dickinson got in the huddle, talking to Mac, and he said, ‘Let’s just roll with it,’” Morris said. “It was, ‘Whatever he wants to run, let’s roll with it. … I think it says a lot about their relationship to each other.”
NFL Draft Bible
Positional rankings
QB | RB | FB | WR | iWR | TE | LT | RT | OG | OC | DT | NG | 3-4 DE | 4-3 DE | 3-4 OLB | 4-3 OLB | ILB | CB | iCB | FS | SS
NFL.com
Jeremiah's latest mock draft included just the first round:
3. Mac Jones, 49ers
11. DeVonta Smith, Giants
12. Patrick Surtain II, Panthers
16. Jaylen Waddle, Cardinals
29. Landon Dickerson, Packers
24. Najee Harris, Steelers
ESPN.com
McShay's latest mock draft was for two rounds:
First round
3. Mac Jones, 49ers
6. DeVonta Smith, Dolphins
7. Jaylen Waddle, Lions
8. Patrick Surtain II, Panthers
24. Najee Harris, Steelers
Second round
44. Christian Barmore, Cowboys
55. Landon Dickerson, Steelers
60. Alex Leatherwood, Saints
2021 Draft Order
- Jacksonville (1-15)
- NY Jets (2-14)
- San Francisco from Miami via Houston (4-12)
- Atlanta (4-12)
- Cincinnati (4-11-1)
- Miami from Philadelphia (4-11-1)
- Detroit (5-11)
- Carolina (5-11)
- Denver (5-11)
- Dallas (6-10)
- NY Giants (6-10)
- Philadelphia from Miami via San Francisco (6-10)
- LA Chargers (7-9)
- Minnesota (7-9)
- New England (7-9)
- Arizona (8-8)
- Las Vegas (8-8)
- Miami (10-6)
- Washington (7-9)
- Chicago (8-8)
- Indianapolis (11-5)
- Tennessee (11-5)
- NY Jets from Seattle* (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (12-4)
- Jacksonville from LA Rams* (10-6)
- Cleveland (11-5)
- Baltimore (11-5)
- New Orleans (12-4)
- Green Bay (13-3)
- Buffalo (13-3)
- Kansas City (14-2)
- Tampa Bay (11-5)
