Jake Fraley Continues to Struggle, But Are There Signs of a Turnaround?

Reds right fielder Fraley has struggled to begin the 2025 season.

Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl (29) pats right fielder Jake Fraley (27) after his running catch ends the top of the eighth inning of the MLB Opening Day game between the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, March 27, 2025. The Giants won 6-4. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s only been six games, but many are questioning the Cincinnati Reds continued play of Jake Fraley. He lacked power in 2024 and is not showing any in 2025.

Are there signs of a turnaround?

Usually in cases like this, I look for any sign of there being an underlying change. The process improving but the results not necessarily reflecting it. 

Tyler Stephenson’s early quality of contact statistics in 2024, for example, pointed to a player getting unlucky and ready for a turnaround. Stephenson’s summer was much better than his spring.

Fraley isn’t looking the same. He has always been a player who struggled with hard contact. His career average exit velocity is four MPH below the league average hitter. The problem is that through the first six games of 2025, Fraley has an average exit velocity of 80.3, or EIGHT MPH below league average.

What’s more is he has a hard-hit rate of just 20%. The league average hitter has a hard-hit rate of 36.6%.

So even if the number that points to luck, the batting average on balls in play, tells the story of an unlucky hitter, his quality of contact does not point to a turnaround.

He'll look to rebound on Thursday night when the Reds play the Brewers in Milwaukee. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.

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