Analyzing AJ Dybantsa's Odds to Convert on Kenny Smith's Bold Wizards Prediction

The Washington Wizards' top prospect has an open runway to take advantage of a lighter scoring burden than anything he's seen in years.

Feb 24, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) warms up prior to a game be the UCF Knights and the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

AJ Dybantsa will no longer bless Washington Wizards fans with his Summer League presence following the franchise's decision to shut the former No. 1 pick down for the offseason, but that doesn't mean there are any fewer reasons to openly discuss his sky-high potential within a quietly-stacked lineup.

While the remainder of the Wizards' summertime festivities transition into an auditioning process for the presently-unsigned rostered contributors, the sidelined Dybantsa still shines brightly as the Wizards' most shimmering hope, even if he's inactive and wearing street clothes.

ESPN analyst and former player Kenny Smith certainly thinks so, making a bold claim regarding Dybantsa's immediate scoring upside during Washington's fourth Summer League outing earlier this week. "He's probably gonna have the easiest 20 pts per game in his life," he asserted as an in-game guest commentator. "He'll never get doubled. Think about this: the whole season, the No. 1 pick will possibly never get double teamed. You can't leave Trae [Young] and you can't leave [Anthony Davis]."

WOW: Kenny Smith on AJ Dybantsa: "He's probably gonna have the easiest 20 pts per game in his LIFE" 👀👀👀

"He'll NEVER get doubled. Think about this the WHOLE season, the #1 pick will possibly NEVER get double teamed. You can't leave Trae and you can't leave AD”

(via @ESPNNBA) pic.twitter.com/8id7OtacDK

— SleeperWizards (@SleeperWizards) July 16, 2026

Smith poses an interesting counter to the idea that Dybantsa will have to sacrifice touches in the name of deferring to the Wizards' name-brand All-Stars and fellow on-ball wing prospects such as Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson and Will Riley.

Between the future rookie's own scoring aggression, willing playmaking, athletic finishing and determination to work his way to the free throw line, he may very well cross the hallowed threshold in making his Rookie of the Year bid should things break in his favor.

Dybantsa's Uphill Battle

He departed Summer League action in leaving little doubt that he was who the Wizards evaluated him to be. The 6'9 guard averaged 25 points per game across his lone pair of outings as an always-imposing threat to convert on wild layup attempts, catch a body under the rim or stick defenders with foul trouble, having already demonstrated a keen understanding of how NBA referees judge contact initiation.

AJ Dybantsa summer league highlights:

25 PPG - 7 RPG - 2 APG - 2.5 SPG - 1.5 BPG

Wizards have seen enough 😔 pic.twitter.com/Hen8N8hjfE

— riley ｼ (@rileyr_) July 14, 2026

He's far from complete as a bucket-generator, though, and he'd tell you that himself. He wasn't exactly an off-ball assassin during his time with the BYU Cougars, having soaked up the vast majority of his collegiate squad's offensive responsibilities, and much of that has to do with his low-impact outside jump shot.

As crafty as he is foot-working in the midrange and shooting from his favorite spots, the 33.1% hit rate he posted on low volume speaks for itself. Dybantsa didn't need that consistent range in netting 25.5 nightly points to lead the Big 12, but professional evaluators will surely recommend that he completely overhaul his mechanics if he can't succeed with his low shooting release point and flat arc.

The 1/11 success he had on Summer League 3-balls surprised few who were familiar with his past struggles.

Mar 18, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots the ball during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And I'd be remiss to point out that 20 points per game is no joke.

That seems easy for Dybantsa to manage in the long-term, but for reference; while reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg cleared 21 a night as the lead option on an unimpressive Dallas Mavericks team, proficient off-ball shooter and play-finisher Kon Knueppel was halted at 18.5 in splitting possessions alongside a high-usage point guard of his own in LaMelo Ball.

The Wizards have persistently attempted to beat the concerns that Young won't share primary decision-making reps since signing him back to Washington, advertising a turning of the page in the All-Star's effort to empower more growth out of his teammates. But in the meantime, his own role adjustment, Davis' chase for redemption and the prospects' collective baby steps ensure that head coach Brian Keefe can look forward to a full plate this fall.

His inherent athletic qualities and scoring strengths will still lend themselves well to heavy minutes on Dybantsa's part as a multi-positional asset, and that's without the bias that trails all draft-leading picks. Smith's assumption that the star up-and-comer won't receive the same attention that he's been hit with at past competition levels is fair, and Dybantsa is, to his credit, a more promising building block than just about any previous in-decade draftee not named Flagg or Wembanyama.

He has a clear shot to pay off the assertion; he'll just need the same game-ready approach he's already flashed, combined with the versatile two-way improvements he and the organization have sketched out for his future. And if anyone can appreciate and rise up to the challenge of figuring the league out while adjusting to a suddenly-competitive situation, it'll be the hyper-competitive Dybantsa.

Make sure you bookmark Washington Wizards on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!