What history says about 'Hard Knocks' affecting Bills' regular season record

Win-loss records for every HBO summer reality show participant dating back to 2001 Baltimore Ravens

Jul 22, 2023; Florham Park, NJ, USA; An NFL Films crew for the HBO television series Hard Knocks stand behind New York Jets receivers during the New York Jets Training Camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

There's certainly an existing notion that a team participating in HBO's NFL training camp documentary series can encounter harmful distractions that will ultimately result in poor regular season performance.

While club executives and coaches may subconsciously worry that the "Hard Knocks" cameras will expose potential cracks in the organization, such a fear isn't sufficiently supported by data that dates back one-quarter of a century.

Simply put, the Buffalo Bills, although likely not overly thrilled, probably aren't overly concerned, nor should they be, that the production crew will be hovering as training camp kicks off at St. John Fisher University.

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With the HBO series debuting in 2001, there have been numerous examples of success after hosting "Hard Knocks."

Most recently, the Detroit Lions have emerged as an NFC juggernaut since their 2022 appearance. Their record has improved each of the past three seasons.

In 2021, the Lions went 3-13-1 for what was head coach Dan Campbell's first year at the helm. In the season directly following their Hard Knocks experience, Detroit improved to 9-8 and eliminated the rival Green Bay Packers from playoff contention. Next came a 12-5 showing, and subsequent NFC Championship Game appearance, in 2023. Last year, Detroit went 15-2.

This goofball on #HardKnocks 🔜@BuffaloBills | @JoshAllenQB pic.twitter.com/qaGzxb0rYz

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) May 21, 2025

Unfortunately, success did not follow for the 2023 New York Jets and the 2024 Chicago Bears. Both teams experienced a decrease in wins from the season prior to their "Hard Knocks" assignment.

Objectively speaking, however, it was the Week 1 Aaron Rodgers injury that hurt the Jets more than any residue from the summertime reality show. Furthermore, it wasn't an immediate disaster for the Bears in 2024. Riding the Hard Knocks momentum, Chicago won its opener on the way to a 4-2 start before the wheels came off, resulting in a 5-12 finish for Caleb Williams and Co.

Prior to the Jets and Bears' misfortunes, the last six "Hard Knocks" participants all subsequently experienced win total improvements in the regular season.

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Since 2009, there have been 11 "Hard Knocks" teams who saw their win total increase from the prior season. Only four teams suffered a drop-off and one team's record did not change over that span.

Unlike many of yesteryear's "Hard Knocks" hosts, the Bills are an established club who have lived near the top of the NFL for the past five years. Buffalo has averaged 12.2 regular season wins since 2020.

Aug 19, 2020; Costa Mesa, California, USA; A HBO Hard Knocks cameraman shoots video footage of Los Angeles Chargers training camp at the Jack Hammett Sports Comple | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Here are the win-loss records for every Hard Knocks host dating back to the series start. The emoji next to the record indicates whether that mark is an improvement, a drop-off or unchanged from the prior season.

Teams' regular season records after hosting 'Hard Knocks'

2024: Chicago Bears (5-12) ⬇️

2023: New York Jets (4-13) ⬇️

2022: Detroit Lions (9-8) ⬆️

2021: Dallas Cowboys (12-5) ⬆️

2020: Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) ⬆️

2020: Los Angeles Rams (10-6) ⬆️

2019: Oakland Raiders (7-9) ⬆️

2018: Cleveland Browns (7-8-1) ⬆️

2017: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) ⬇️

2016: Los Angeles Rams (4-12) ⬇️

2015: Houston Texans (9-7) ↔️

2014: Atlanta Falcons (6-10) ⬆️

2013: Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) ⬆️

2012: Miami Dolphins (7-9) ⬆️

2010: New York Jets (11-5) ⬆️

2009: Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) ⬆️

2008: Dallas Cowboys (9-7) ⬇️

2007: Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) ⬇️

2002: Dallas Cowboys (5-11) ↔️

2001: Baltimore Ravens (10-6) ⬇️

Jul 31, 2009; Georgetown, KY, USA; HBO film crew from Hard Knocks tapes the Cincinnati Bengals during training camp at Georgetown College. | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

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