NFL experts identify X factor for Bills' Wild-Card matchup vs. Jaguars

The critical postseason game could come down to special teams.

Bills Matt Prater is hoisted on the teams shoulders after his field goal put the Bills ahead 41-40 to beat the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 7, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There is a list of factors that will have a defining impact on the Buffalo Bills’ Wild-Card matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend.

Josh Allen vs. Trevor Lawrence.

James Cook vs. the Jaguars’ No. 1 rush defense.

But what about special teams?

NFL experts Mina Kimes and Benjamin Solak believe Sunday’s contest may come down to the kicking game. And they may be onto something.

RELATED: Bills starting kicker misses practice before critical Wild-Card matchup with Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars place kicker Cam Little (39) settles the sideline after kicking a 67-yard field goal during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Different directions

Entering the Wild-Card game between Buffalo and Jacksonville, Jaguars kicker Cam Little is coming off a 67-yard make during his team’s Week 18 win, while Bills kicker Matt Prater is literally limping into the contest after sustaining a setback to his quad injury during Buffalo’s victory in their season finale.

Prater had missed the team’s previous two games due to the ailment before attempting to return against New York. He has since taken positive steps toward potentially suiting up this weekend.

With that said, the different directions in which each team’s specialists are trending could be a big deal, said Kimes and Solak in a recent episode of The Mina Kimes Show.

MORE: Reasons why James Cook could explode for big game vs. Jaguars' No. 1 rush defense

Bills Jags was almost too close to call…but both @benjaminsolak and I landed on an X factor that could end up being the difference….

🎧: https://t.co/hSScSvrPl5

📺: https://t.co/p4OSroHtUe pic.twitter.com/VXr0rznnny

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) January 9, 2026

“It’s Cam Little vs. the Bills’ kicker,” said Solak as to what the X factor is for this weekend’s game.

Kimes replied, “On one hand, you’ve got the greatest long-distance weapon right now… and on the other side you have a 41-year-old who’s hammy or quad got tight last week.”

She continued, “These things matter in the playoffs. Nobody talks about special teams until it does.”

RELATED: Buffalo Bills could have avoided Maxwell Hairston's injury vs. Jets in Week 18

Nov 30, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Buffalo Bills place kicker Matt Prater (15) kicks a field goal during the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The numbers

His injury notwithstanding, Prater has been a touch more efficient than Little on field goal attempts this season, making 90% of his attempts to Little’s 88.2% success rate. But the injury sustained by Prater clouds things.

In spite of all that, Kimes has another reason for her prediction for Sunday’s contest.

“I’m very close in this game, because I do think the Bills’ pass defense has been good,” she began. “But I’m going to go Jacksonville here. They’re the better team.”

That will not sit well with Bills fans, who are hoping this year’s team can end the franchise’s Super Bowl drought. 

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