Elite stats from Justin Herbert won't mean success for these Jim Harbaugh Chargers

There’s a thought that the Chargers’ quarterback could put up bigger numbers in 2025. History says that’s not really a good thing when it comes to the team.

Dec 28, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes the ball against the New England Patriots in the third quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Following the 32-12 playoff disaster at Houston in January, this may be the last thing any supporters of the Los Angeles Chargers and their talented signal-caller may want to read.

Recently, the staff at Pro Football Network released its bold predictions for each of the 32 teams in the National Football League. When it came to Jim Harbaugh’s squad for 2025, it states that “Justin Herbert throws for 1,000 more yards.”

Going by his 2024 numbers, that would put the five-year pro at 4,870 yards. That’s a pretty significant total, but it would have not led the NFL. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow led the league with 4,918 yards through the air.

Here is PFN’s reasoning. “After four seasons of a pass-first offense, Justin Herbert saw significantly more support from his run game and defense in 2024. Jim Harbaugh unsurprisingly turned Los Angeles into a run-first identity, with the Chargers recording the 10th-highest designed run rate (45.5 percent). In Herbert’s first four seasons (2020-23), the Bolts had the second-lowest designed run rate (38.2 percent).

Jan 11, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh reacts during the third quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

From Week 11 on, the Chargers ranked 18th in designed run rate. Herbert finished the season with three consecutive games passing for at least 280 yards, matching his total from the first 14 games combined. As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Chargers lean more heavily on Herbert in 2025. That’s especially true if Los Angeles can add some passing game weapons after re-setting their salary cap by cutting Mike Williams and trading away Keenan Allen (in 2024). Herbert’s 3,870 passing yards were his fewest in any healthy season of his career, but improved volume and efficiency could result in a much gaudier figure next year.”

It’s worth remember that in his second year in the league, Herbert threw for a career-high 5,014 yards. The team finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs. It’s also notable that only once in the 59-year history of the Super Bowl Era has a player led pro football in passing yards and won a Lombardi Trophy the same season. In 2022, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards during the regular season on the way to the Chiefs winning Super Bowl LVII.

Could Harbaugh emphasize the passing game a bit more in 2025? Perhaps a bit. Offensive balance remains a big part of winning NFL titles, as the reigning champion Eagles will attest to.

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