Why Patriots' Offense is Poised to Shine in Playoffs

FOXBORO — In January of 2019, the New England Patriots entered the playoffs as an above-average team.

As the Foxboro faithful may remember, the regular season leading up to the 2018-19 playoff run was, at best, unpleasant. After back-to-back week two and three losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and (vastly inferior, at the time) Detroit Lions, dynasty doomsayers immediately clung to the idea of the 2018 season being the beginning of the end.

The team somewhat righted the ship through the midseason, winning eight of their next nine games, with a notable loss to the Tennessee Titans in which Tom Brady dropped a first-down reception.

Entering their last four games of the regular season, the team once again lost back-to-back games to the Miami Dolphins (the "Miami Miracle" game) and the Pittsburgh Steelers. This left them 9-5, their worst in-season record in nearly a decade.

The losses in this particular season remain some of the most memorable losses in the 2010s New England dynasty, for just how badly the team was beaten each time. The atmosphere of dominance once associated with the Flying Elvis just seemed less potent.

And yet, three playoff games later, it was none other than the Patriots left standing with the Lombardi trophy.

Behind the 2018 Patriots Turnaround

In the aftermath of Super Bowl LIII, national media focused heavily on the sustained excellence and dominance of the dynasty — and rightfully so. Yet, in doing so, one of the most impressive late-season transformations in modern NFL history has been largely forgotten about.

The key to this turnaround lay in the two very last games of the 2018 regular season.

Following consecutive losses in weeks 14 and 15, the Patriots won two "meaningless" games against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, winning by margins of 24-12 and 38-3, respectively. Most importantly, it was in these games that the offense found its identity.

After having spent the first 14 games with a pass-heavy philosophy, the offense shifted to old-school I-formation, wing, and empty under-center looks.

The New England offense fully revamped its approach, pivoting into a run-first offense powered by fullback James Devlin and runningback Sony Michel. Through two dominant rushing games to close the regular season, the Patriots' pivot gave them the ability to develop a genuine ground attack entering the playoffs; this, in turn, also opened up the passing attack for Brady in cases of shootouts.

In the iconic AFC Championship game that season against the Kansas City Chiefs, the offense's rushing ability helped dominate time of possession while demanding loaded boxes, giving Brady clean play-action passing lanes in a second-half shootout. In Super Bowl LIII two weeks later, the team called 16 different kinds of running plays en route to a ground-and-pound victory.

The 2025 Patriots Offense is Poised for a Breakout

Games towards the end of the season don't necessarily indicate anything in terms of playoff performance, but they do reveal trends in identity. For the 2025 Patriots, this trend in identity is a less drastic version of their 2018 counterparts, but it could prove to be just as important. The 2025 New England offense may have found its playoff identity as a multifaceted offense capable of producing from the ground. The team already has the best passing offense in the league — if the running offense can approximate its productivity in the playoffs, the Patriots offense can jump to an even greater tier.

The offense's dual-headed rushing attack has, over the last quarter of the season, evolved into a genuine weapon. From weeks 1-13, the New England rush offense ranked 29th in the league at -.174 EPA/play. Yet over the last four games, from weeks 14-18, the Patriots' rush offense is ranked at 2nd in the league at +.171 EPA/play.

Jan 4, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) calls the snap count against the Miami Dolphins defense during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

A significant reason for this production is quarterback Drake Maye's mobility. Maye's practice running for his life back in 2024 seems to have translated perfectly to the 2025 season, allowing him to create yardage from broken plays. Further, in the Bills game in Week 14, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels called actual design run plays for Maye. Though McDaniels hasn't called many design quarterback runs since, this will most likely be a feature of the team's playoff offense, especially as teams attempt to counter the team's lack of individual receiver talent with cover 2-man shells.

Concurrently, the more even distribution of carries between running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson has allowed for each to shine as valuable assets both within and outside the tackles. With Stevenson in particular, the controlling dosing seems to have improved his ball security, stamina, and contact balance.

This improvement in the rushing attack has correlated with an improvement in red zone defense. Over the last three weeks, the team has been the sixth-ranked red zone offense in the league at a touchdown conversion rate of 72%. For context, their season average of 55% places them at 20th in the league.

Maye is already playing at a level where, if most voters actually watched film and looked at stats past basic box scores, he would be the consensus MVP. As the New England offensive line continues to heal entering January football, the outlook for the team's rushing attack looks more promising than ever. Should 2025's best quarterback have the luxury of a consistent rushing attack to keep defenses tight at the line of scrimmage, the Patriots' offense makes the team legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

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