Ranking NFL Offenses: Washington Commanders No. 3
The quick turnaround in wins (4-13 to 12-5) for Washington falls solely on the talent of Jayden Daniels. In one easy season, the Commanders scored 156 more points, lifting them to fifth in scoring (485) and seventh in offensive yards. Washington traded for Deebo Samuel, whose school-yard style should be a perfect match with the Commanders’ young, stud quarterback.
They added RT Josh Conerly in the first round of this year’s draft, and acquired LT Laremy Tunsil from the Houston Texans, a win for Washington's ability to move the ball. The Commanders also invested in WR Jaylin Lane and RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt to their offense via the draft. Both players bring elite speed.
Washington Commanders Starting Lineup
QB Jayden Daniels
RB1 Brian Robinson
RB2 Austin Ekeler
WR1 Terry McLaurin
WR2 Deebo Samuel
WR3 Noah Brown
TE Zach Ertz
WR4 Michael Gallup
3. Washington Commanders Fantasy Outlook
In his rookie season, Jayden Daniels played with poise and a slickness to his game. He opened the year with an elite completion rate (82.1) over his first four starts, gaining 8.5 yards per pass attempt and success on the ground (46/218/4). His passing equation came together over his final eight games (1,778 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions) while maintaining a high floor running the ball (84/470/2).
When running the ball, Daniels had his eyes up, looking to make plays with his arm and take what the defense gave him in the run game. The Commanders succeeded with their running backs in close, leading to 19 touchdowns and putting less pressure on their quarterback to make plays at the goal line. Washington’s signal-callers led the NFL in rushing attempts (166) and yards (983). Daniels will be a top-five quarterback drafted this season.
𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗘 𝗢𝗥 𝗙𝗔𝗟𝗦𝗘: #Commanders QB Jayden Daniels had the best rookie season in history — in any sport.
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) May 6, 2025
(via: @HogfarmerChris) pic.twitter.com/X3ErxPAGFX
Last year, the Commanders’ running backs rushed for 1,636 yards and 19 touchdowns on 360 carries while gaining 4.5 yards per rush. They caught 65 passes for 564 yards on 79 targets, but failed to score via a pass.
Other than three missed games (knee, ankle, and hamstring issues), Brian Robinson played well in his third year with Washington. He scored a career-high eight rushing touchdowns (8) while reaching a new top in his yards per rush (4.3). His season opened up with six double-digit fantasy point games (85/396/6 with eight catches for 68 yards), but his rotational role led to only four more playable games (14.20, 17.90, 11.70, and 19.70), with the last coming in the postseason. He projects to be an RB3 in PPR formats this year.
The switch to the Commanders’ offense led to a rebound in yards per rush (4.8) and yards per catch (10.5) for Austin Ekeler. Unfortunately, he averaged only 9.3 touches per game while sitting out five games due to two concussions. Ekeler scored between 10.00 and 18.50 fantasy points in nine games in PPR formats, eight of which came over his first 10 contests. In early fantasy drafts, he will be drafted after round 10.
Terry McLaurin extended his streak with over 1,000 receiving yards to five seasons while developing into a scoring beasty (13 touchdowns – 25 over his first 77 games) with Jayden Daniels behind center. He finished with a five-year low in targets (117 – 6.9 per game) and a push to seventh in wide receiver scoring (268.80 PPR formats). Over his final 18 games, McLaurin scored at least 14.00 fantasy points in 16 games, highlighted by seven days with 20.00 fantasy points.
Touchdown success is sometimes not repeatable the following season, but he does have a proven floor in catches and receiving yards. McLaurin comes off the board as the 15th wide receiver in early May. I expect him to beat these expectations.
After a breakout season (77/1,770/14 on 121 targets and 59 carries) in 2021, Deebo Samuel missed eight games while failing to reach WR1 status. He gained over 100 receiving yards twice in 2024 (8/110 and 3/102/1) while posting two other productive outcomes (5/77/1 and 7/96/1). Samuel scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in six of his final seven starts while sitting out Week 18 with a rib issue.
49ers trading WR Deebo Samuel to the Commanders for a 5th-round pick. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/V5hiStDf66
— NFL (@NFL) March 1, 2025
He’ll be drafted as mid-tier WR4 this season. Washington will rank low in passing attempts and completions due to the style of play by their quarterback, inviting some quiet days for Samuel. I expect him to steal some of Terry McLaurin’s touchdowns.
Zach Ertz had a bounce-back season, helping Washington move the ball. He caught 66 of his 91 targets for 654 yards and seven touchdowns (most since 2018). Jayden Daniels looked for him at the goal line (eight targets inside the five-yard line). Ertz ranked 7th in tight end scoring (177.40) in PPR formats while reaching over 10.00 fantasy points in 10 of his final 15 matchups. His top two games came in Week 17 (6/72/2) and Week 21 (11/104).
The early fantasy market doesn’t believe his success is repeatable based on Ertz’s tight end ranking (21st). He’ll turn 35 in November.
The excitement of Jayden Daniels is real, but the value of the Commanders’ offensive players would sharply decline if he were injured. Their running back position offers only steady value due to a rotation of players. Deebo Samuel has big play and scoring upside, but his presence will lower the outlooks of multiple players in Washington.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.