College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections After Week 11: Notre Dame, Alabama in Control

A wild weekend led to several shake-ups in the playoff pecking order as we head into the home stretch of the season.

Alabama defensive lineman Fatutoa Henry celebrates after the sack of Vanderbilt quarterback Jared Curtis. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If you had to step away from the action at any point on Saturday, you probably wound up missing quite a number of ridiculous finishes, wild plays and massive results that will have a big impact on the postseason. 

That’s reflected in the Sports Illustrated latest bowl projections going into Week 12, which sees several shake-ups in the CFP pecking order and beyond. Remember, this sport is never straightforward so upsets are bound to happen. Could we see Alabama win the SEC over Georgia, Texas Tech knock off undefeated Utah in the Big 12 to punch its ticket or Wake Forest play a close one against Miami to narrowly sneak ahead of BYU, Oregon and Iowa for an at-large bid?

Beyond the CFP, there are a number of compelling bowl matchups in play, including USC meeting James Franklin in the Holiday Bowl, a Pop-Tarts Bowl that will feature a ton of points between Louisville and Oklahoma State and an Alamo Bowl that could have been a first-round game with Oregon and a spurned set of Cougars. There’s also a slight surplus of bowl-eligible teams currently projected (sorry UConn and UMass, among others) but that could well change by the time the penultimate weekend of the regular season takes place.

PREVIOUS: Projections After Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

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College Football Playoff Projected Rankings After Week 11

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Miami
4. Indiana
5. Georgia
6. Utah
7. UCLA
8. Texas
9. Texas Tech
10. Tennessee 
11. Wake Forest
12. Boise State

First Round

• No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
• No. 11 Wake Forest at No. 6 Utah
• No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 UCLA
• No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Texas

Quarterfinals

• Rose Bowl: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Georgia
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 10 Tennessee
• Peach Bowl: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 Utah
• Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Texas

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Semifinals

• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Georgia
• Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami

National Championship

• At Las Vegas: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 5 Georgia

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Bowl Projections After Week 11

Bowl Game	Date	Matchup
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Dec. 15	FIU vs. Appalachian State
Frisco Football Classic	Dec. 15	Tulsa vs. Northwestern
San Juan Bowl	Dec. 16	Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 18	FAU vs. Jacksonville Staet
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 18	Florida State vs. USF
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 21	Delaware vs. East Carolina
Potato Bowl	Dec. 21	Fresno State vs. Wyoming
Puerto Rico Bowl	Dec. 22	Western Michigan vs. New Mexico
Cure Bowl	Dec. 22	Miami (Ohio) vs. James Madison
Independence Bowl	Dec. 22	Baylor vs. Stanford
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 23	Liberty vs. Louisiana Tech
Armed Forces Bowl	Dec. 23	Minnesota vs. Cincinnati
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 23	Louisiana vs. Buffalo
Poinsettia Bowl	Dec. 23	Arizona State vs. Oregon State
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 24	UAB vs. Texas State
Hawai’i Bowl	Dec. 24	San Diego State vs. Air Force
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 26	Iowa vs. Duke
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 26	Pitt vs. Memphis
Mayo Bowl	Dec. 26	Wisconsin vs. North Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl	Dec. 26	Middle Tennessee State vs. South Alabama
Cactus Bowl	Dec. 26	UCF vs. Penn State
Military Bowl	Dec. 26	Syracuse vs. UTSA
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 28	USC vs. Virginia Tech
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 29	Missouri vs. North Texas
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Dec. 29	Oklahoma State vs. Louisville
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 29	BYU vs. Oregon
Gator Bowl	Dec. 30	LSU vs. SMU
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Kentucky vs. Illinois
ReliaQuest Bowl	Dec. 31	Florida vs. Nebraska
Sun Bowl	Dec. 31	Washington vs. Clemson
Las Vegas Bowl	Dec. 31	Auburn vs. Arizona
Texas Bowl	Dec. 31	Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Citrus Bowl	Jan. 2	Ohio State vs. Mississippi
First Responder Bowl	Jan. 2	Army vs. UNLV
Liberty Bowl	Jan. 2	Houston vs. South Carolina
Arizona	Jan. 2	Toledo vs. North Dakota State

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