Bills vs. Patriots preview, prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

It all comes down to this.

The Buffalo Bills (9-4) have hit the road to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots (11-2), who have a chance to clinch the AFC East with a win over their longtime rival.

Sunday afternoon’s divisional matchup is the second between the two teams this season, with the Bills falling in the previous meeting 23-20 after turning the ball over three times and struggling to contain the Patriots’ passing game down the stretch, ultimately leading to Buffalo’s demise.

Since then, things haven’t changed a whole lot, with the Bills remaining inconsistent over the past nine weeks, while the Patriots have continued their torrid pace as winners of 10 straight games. One similarity between these two teams is that they are both propelled by star quarterbacks, with Drake Maye as the current MVP frontrunner and the reigning MVP, Josh Allen, turning in another impressive campaign.

This week’s game is one of the most consequential between the two AFC East foes in recent memory, as, according to Next Gen Stats, Week 15 will be just the second Bills-Patriots matchup in the last 50 seasons in which both teams were five-plus games over .500 entering the game. The only other example of such a matchup was Week 6 of the 2019 season, when Tom Brady led the Patriots to a 24-17 win over the Bills.

New England has a chance to thwart Buffalo’s chances of winning the East, while the Bills have an opportunity to remain in contention of claiming a sixth straight divisional title. With plenty on the line during Sunday’s critical rivalry tilt, it should make for another classic matchup between these two hated enemies.

With kickoff fast approaching, let’s take a quick look at the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s game.

Drake Maye, DaQuan Jones — Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Daquan Jones tries to sack New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye but May was able to get throw the ball for a completion during second half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Oct. 5, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of Sunday morning, the Bills are 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots entering the Week 15 matchup, per FanDuel. It’s the second time this season the Bills have entered a matchup vs. their rival as favorites, including in Week 5, when Buffalo was favored by 7.5 points over the Patriots.

New England has won 10 straight games entering Sunday’s contest, covering the spread in eight of those victories, including twice when they were not favored. The Bills have won two in a row, but have posted a 2-3 record against the spread in their past five games. Buffalo has covered the spread in just four of 11 games it's entered as a favorite this season.

Weather report

Snow has been falling in Foxboro since Saturday night and may continue to throughout the game. Per the Weather Channel, the forecast is calling for clouds with light snow and a high temperature of 32 degrees. Winds will blow 10 to 15 mph, while the chance of snow is 70%, with accumulation expected.

MORE: Joey Bosa can reignite early-season success for Bills vs. Patriots' vulnerable OL

Bills Patriots — Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (1) makes a catch against the New England Patriots during the second half at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Bills injuries

The Bills have listed three players as questionable for Sunday’s game, including wide receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle), linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) and cornerback Christian Benford (toe).

Benford’s ailment is the most concerning, considering his value to the Bills’ secondary, which will have his hands full in defending against Maye this week. The CB’s ailment popped up on Thursday, which left him sidelined for Friday’s practice. If he cannot play, rookie Maxwell Hairston would be inserted into the Bills’ starting lineup, while Buffalo also elevated Dane Jackson from the practice squad as potential depth.

Palmer and Bernard have each missed two straight games. If Palmer returns against the Patriots, that could lead to Keon Coleman once again being forced out of the lineup against New England. If Bernard plays, it will be interesting to see if Buffalo places him back into his starting role or continues to roll with veteran Shaq Thompson as the team’s defensive play caller.

The Bills will enjoy the return of starting right tackle Spencer Brown (shoulder) and top edge rusher Joey Bosa (hamstring), both of whom were out last week with their respective ailments. Brown will return following a two-game absence.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen reacts to a play during second half action at at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Oct. 5, 2025. Besides him, New England Patriots linebacker Anfernee Jennings watches. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Patriots injuries

New England will be without its top defensive tackle, Milton Williams (ankle) and top left tackle Will Campbell (knee) for Sunday’s game, as both remain on Injured Reserve due to their respective ailments. In addition, linebacker Robert Spillane (foot) has been deemed questionable and third-string running back Terrell Jennings is out due to a concussion.

In addition to the losses of Williams and Campbell, which are both critical, Spillane’s potential absence would also be significant. He is a team captain and one of the Patriots’ top defenders at the second level.

Coaching matchup

Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel will square off for the seventh time in their head-coaching careers on Sunday, with the series between the two tied at three following the Patriots’ early-season victory over the Bills this year.

MORE: What are the chances Buffalo Bills overtake New England Patriots, win AFC East?

Patriots Bills — Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) is tackled by Buffalo Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam (41) on a kick off return during the second half at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Top storyline

Everyone will be watching to see if the Bills can stave off the Patriots for another week and potentially make a late-season run at the AFC East title. Buffalo remains with an 11% chance to win the division, per the New York Times Playoff Simulator, a number which would grow to 24% with a victory on Sunday.

Player to watch

Dalton Kincaid has been a bright light for the Bills’ offense when healthy this season, and the third-year tight end will have another opportunity to guide his team this week against New England. Now fully recovered from a hamstring injury that left him limited during a Week 14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, Kincaid will operate uninhibited against the Patriots, a team he had no trouble producing against the first time around this season.

Kincaid finished the Week 5 matchup with six receptions for 108 yards, which was one of his two games with 100-plus yards this season. During that matchup, he did much of his work down the field, as according to Next Gen Stats, Kincaid recorded five catches for 91 yards on passes that traveled at least 10 yards through the air. Kincaid’s average of 2.9 yards per route this season is the highest among tight ends, and the third-highest among all pass catchers with at least 150 routes run this season.

In addition to his downfield prowess, Kincaid has also been an effective threat with the ball in his hands. He is currently averaging the fourth-most yards after catch (7.3) among tight ends who have recorded at least 25 receptions this season.

Kincaid has missed four games due to injury this season. But when he has been on the field, he has been the total package and will be someone the Patriots must account for this week.

Bills crowd — Fans were asked to wear all white for the Bills rivalry match up against the New England Patriots during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Oct. 5, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Prediction — Bills 27, Patriots 24

I find it hard to believe that New England will be able to take down Josh Allen and the Bills twice in a single season.

The Patriots’ rise has been interesting to watch, as Maye has been phenomenal this season while leading his team past many inferior opponents en route to the current top spot in the conference. And while their strength of schedule must be taken into account when providing context as to the success they’ve found throughout the year, you have to give the Patriots a ton of credit for what they’ve achieved.

Under a first-year head coach and second-year rising star QB, New England is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and things once again will likely not be easy for the Bills in Week 15.

However, coming off a thrilling performance against the Bengals this past week, Allen is starting to round into form as the game-changing player we’ve known him to be over the past several seasons. The Bills’ QB experienced somewhat of a midseason lull, but he has since broken out while leading his team to consecutive victories.

The question here is the defense. Will Buffalo be able to slow down Maye and the Patriots’ attack better than it did this past week against Cincinnati? Time will tell.

Nevertheless, I am taking the Bills in this game, with James Cook leading the way with over 90 yards rushing and a couple of touchdowns on what is expected to be a snowy field inside Gillette Stadium. Additionally, in his return to the lineup following a one-game absence, edge rusher Joey Bosa will come away with a sack or two to help lead the Bills’ defensive effort.

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