NFL insider predicts Bills finish 2025 with shockingly low number of wins

Somehow, the Buffalo Bills are being predicted to win fewer games than last year despite a favorable schedule.

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott against the Kansas City Chiefs during the AFC Championship game. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Looking to win the AFC East for the sixth year in a row, the Buffalo Bills find themselves facing a favorable schedule in 2025.

Buffalo has the second-easiest schedule in the AFC, with only the New England Patriots securing a better draw. Compare that to 2024 when they had the 10th toughest schedule in the league, and the Bills could be in line for a superior campaign.

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That's not how ESPN's Mike Clay sees it, however. Clay released an in-depth season projection for all 32 teams covering nearly everything imaginable. Clay predicts statistics for the entire roster and rankings for positional groups.

He also has a win projection, which is 11.8 for the Bills this season.

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Clay has them third in the NFL, but that still feels low given the Bills' 13-4 record in 2024 while facing a tougher slate of opponents.

Kentucky Wildcats CB Maxwell Hairston is selected by the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Buffalo has also improved their defense immensely through the NFL draft — plus with the addition of Joey Bosa in free agency.

That's why a projection under 12 games feels surprisingly low.

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