Why Christian Encarnacion-Strand Will Smash Past His 2025 Home Run Projections

The Reds are hoping for a bounce-back season from their power-hitting first baseman.

Cincinnati Reds first base Christian Encarnacion-Strand (33) grounds into a fielder’s choice in the second inning of a baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday, May 7, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. | Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit his second home run of the spring on Saturday afternoon against the Chicago Cubs, a reminder of the raw power he brings to the Reds' lineup when he's healthy.

As he continues to find his rhythm heading into the 2025 season, it raises an important question: Why are projections so low on his home run total?

According to ZiPS, Encarnacion-Strand is projected to hit just 21 home runs this season. That number feels conservative, especially considering his track record of power production and the hitter-friendly environment of Great American Ball Park.

Encarnacion-Strand’s first full year in the big leagues was a bit of a lost season. He battled a nagging wrist injury that impacted his ability to generate power consistently and forced him to miss most of the season.

Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power, and if he’s fully recovered, his bat speed and strength should translate into more home runs in 2024.

Power has always been Encarnacion-Strand’s calling card. In 2022, he hit 32 home runs in the minor leagues. He followed that up by launching 33 in 2023 between Louisville and Cincinnati.

There’s also a home field advantage. Great American Ball Park is one of the most home-run-friendly stadiums in all of baseball. It routinely ranks near the top in home run park factor, especially for right-handed hitters.

Encarnacion-Strand’s power potential is far greater than what his ZiPS projections suggest. His wrist injury masked his true ability last season, and his minor league track record proves he’s capable of hitting for much more power.

With a full season in the middle of Cincinnati’s lineup and the benefit of playing half his games at Great American Ball Park, there’s every reason to believe he will blow past the 21-home-run mark in 2024.

If he stays healthy, 30 home runs is well within reach.

You can see the Reds' full ZIPS projections here.

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