Jeimer Candelario is a Notoriously Slow Starter but the Cincinnati Reds Can Expect a Turnaround

Jeimer Candelario is off to another slow start which have caused some Cincinnati Reds fans to write him off. The thing is, this is what he always does…so is a turnaround coming?

Candelario has a whopping 17 OPS+. That means his performances have amounted to 83% below the league average hitter. This has happened before.

In April of 2024, Candelario was a .189 hitter. That is slightly better than the .125 hitter he currently is, but it goes to show that this feels like what he does in the first month. He had three homers in the first month, last year, while just one so far this year.

Expand it out a bit further, and the first month has ALWAYS plagued Candelario. He is 20% worse than his typical self in the months of April and March during his 10 year career. He has an OPS of .652 in 167 games for this time frame.

Now for the silver-linings, because there are a couple. The first is that his career tells us May is good for Candelario. In the month of May, Candelario is almost 10% better than his career average. He has a .761 OPS and gets on base 32% of the time.

In fact last year Candelario went OFF in May and in June. Combining May and June of 2024, Candelario had 11 home runs, hit .269 and had an .828 OPS.

He is also really unlucky right now. Candelario’s batting average on balls in play is just .167. So the times he gets the ball into the field, he is seeing it turn into an out way too much. The league average BABIP is around .290 from all of last year. That means he is .123 points BELOW league average.

This is a “water finds it’s level” point. Of the 129 qualified hitters from last season, the lowest BABIP was .225. So even just accounting for normalcy, that number will improve for Candelario which means hits will begin to fall and he will begin to produce.

The most annoying point in baseball can be made from all this: be patient with Candelario because a turnaround is coming.

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