Proof suggests ESPN analyst wrong thinking Bills will lose vs. Broncos

The Buffalo Bills opened as road favorites over the Denver Broncos as the NFL's divisional round approaches. Still, at least one well-known sports personality doesn't think that line is justified.

Stephen A. Smith, who has been skeptical of the Bills at various points this season, said on ESPN's First Take on Tuesday morning that Buffalo's postseason run will end at the hands of the Broncos.

Why does Stephen A. Smith think the Bills shouldn't be favored?

Smith launched into his argument against fellow analyst Chris Canty, who agreed with the Bills being favored, by highlighting Denver's defense, one of the best units in the league.

"68 sacks on the season, 11 more than any other team in the National Football League," Smith said. "Four shy of the all-time record by the Chicago Bears in 1984."

Smith agreed with Canty that Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the game right now, and even said that he's a fan of Allen's Golden Globe-presenting wife, but he ultimately argued that the circumstances favor Denver.

"Not only are the Buffalo Bills not that formidable offensively in terms of the talent around Josh Allen," Smith said. "You go into Denver, you go into play in that altitude. To not have them [the Broncos] as the favorite and to just automatically dismiss them because of Josh Allen?"

Rebutting Smith's argument

Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Bills running back Ty Johnson (26) runs for a gain, avoiding a tackle by Broncos cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29) during the fourth quarter in an AFC wild-card game at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

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The Bills' 31-7 win over the Broncos in last year's AFC wild-card game shouldn't be overlooked, especially since the Broncos haven't made sweeping changes, while Buffalo has now shown it can win on the road in the postseason.

Buffalo will also have some of their veteran leaders playing at a high level on defense, including Tre'Davious White and Shaq Thompson. Their presence will be critical in helping younger players, such as Jordan Hancock, navigate a game of this magnitude.

And, of course, there's Allen, the reigning MVP and arguably the best player in football, whom the Bills can lean on whenever necessary.

It will take a complete team effort, particularly with several players stepping into larger roles due to injuries, but there should be little doubt that the Bills have a strong chance to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight season on Saturday.

Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) celebrates the game-deciding interception during the fourth quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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