Every Team the USMNT Could Face in the Round of 32—Ranked

The USMNT will like its odds of progressing further at the 2026 World Cup.

Folarin Balogun (left) could send the USMNT roaring into a deep tournament run. | Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated

Mark your calendars. The U.S. men’s national team is set to clash with a currently-unknown foe in the World Cup round of 32 on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

The Stars and Stripes got off to a blistering start to the tournament on home soil, and it doesn’t intend on halting its momentum anytime soon. The Americans dominated Paraguay and Australia en route to the top spot in Group D and utter peace of mind before their group stage finale, a dead rubber, against Türkiye on Thursday.

As the first-place finisher of its group, the No. 14-globally ranked USMNT earns the right to face a third-place finisher from a different group, one from either Group B, E, F, I or J, ensuring the easiest path forward. Per the new, expanded tournament format, the top eight of the 12 total groups’ third-place teams advance to the knockout stages.

Here, Sports Illustrated takes a look at every potential third-place opponent the USMNT could face in the round of 32, ranking them least difficult to most difficult.

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11. Curaçao

Curaçao made their World Cup debut in 2026. | Bradley Collyer/PA Images/Getty Images

The USMNT will love its chance of success should it have to face Curaçao in the round of 32. The World Cup debutants, who became the smallest nation in terms of population and land mass to ever participate in the tournament, has already made legendary status just by being included.

The Caribbean minnows, ranking No. 81 globally by FIFA, suffered a devastating 7–1 loss to Germany in the Group E opener before responding with a respectable scoreless draw with Ecuador. It is unlikely that Curaçao will edge ahead of Côte d’Ivoire or Ecuador for a third-place finish, but it is not fully out of the question. It does need to upset Côte d’Ivoire, though, or see Germany absolutely annihilate Ecuador.

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10. Iraq

Iraq, who returned to the World Cup stage for the first time in 40 years, has performed poorly thus far this summer, losing to both Europe powerhouse France 3–0 and Norway 4–1. Its defense is porous and likely be exploited by American star forwards Folarin Balogun and Christian Pulisic.

The Lions of Mesopotamia, ranked No. 60 globally, need an unlikely win against Senegal to secure the third-place position in Group I.

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9. Sweden

Sweden is competing in Group F. | Hector Vivas/FIFA/Getty Images

Sweden, who had a disastrous World Cup qualifying campaign without winning a single match, is just grateful to be competing this summer.

Graham Potter’s side is the anticipated third-place finisher out of Group F, behind Japan and the Netherlands; however, it is still a tight race. Japan needs to draw or defeat Sweden to confirm third-place for the Scandinavians.

Should Sweden and the USMNT come head-to-head, the Americans would look to prey upon the team’s recent inconsistency, with Sweden defeating Tunisia 5–1 in the opener before being humiliated by the Netherlands 5–1 less than a week later.

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8. Ecuador

Ecuador came into the tournament red-hot, off the back of its greatest-ever qualifying campaign and led by two of the world’s best defensive players—Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo and Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho.

Nevertheless, La Tricolor, ranked No. 29 globally, has underwhelmed since arriving to North America. The team fell to Côte d’Ivoire 1–0 in its Group E opener before a disappointing draw with minnows Curaçao. It is the most likely team to finish in third place in Group E.

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7. Senegal

Senegal has not performed well at the World Cup thus far. | Visionhaus/Getty Images

The USMNT wouldn’t mind facing Senegal, having recently battled the Lions of Teranga in late May and winning 3–2.

Since that pre-World Cup defeat, Senegal has floundered in North America, despite ranking No. 19 globally, due in part to a challenging Group I. It fell to France 3–1 before losing to dark horses Norway 3–2. Senegal enters the group stage finale with zero points and a point to prove, needing a victory over Iraq to have any hope of advancing.

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6. Algeria

Algeria is back in the tournament after 12 years away. If it draws or loses to Austria, then it will finish in third in Group J.

The Algerians, ranked No. 28, opened tournament play to the wrath of Lionel Messi, who notched a historic hat trick en route to becoming the top scorer in World Cup history. Algeria responded with a 2–1 victory over Jordan on Monday and will look to topple Austria on Saturday to secure advancement in the top two.

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5. Bosnia & Herzegovina

Bosnia & Herzegovina proved a tough competitor for Canada and Qatar. | Stu Forster/Getty Images

Bosnia & Herzegovina is the lowest-ranked qualifier from Europe and currently rank a lowly No. 62 on FIFA’s charts, but the nation shouldn’t be discredited.

It has performed surprisingly well this summer, locking up the third-place position in Group B with four points, a number certain to make the team one of the top third-place finishers and most likely to advance. Therefore, at this moment, Bosnia stands as one of the teams the USMNT is most likely to face next week.

The team drew Canada 1–1 in its opener and responded to its loss against Switzerland with a comprehensive 3–1 victory over Qatar to close out group play.

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4. Austria

If Austria loses to Algeria, it will fall to third place in Group J. The nation returns to global stage for the first time in 28 years and plays a high-press, high-intensity style that would serve to create fireworks against a likewise-aggressive American side.

Austria, ranked No. 23 globally, opened World Cup play with a dominant 3–1 victory over Jordan before succumbing to title-holders Argentina, 2–0.

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3. Cote d’Ivoire

Côte d’Ivoire has never advanced beyond the group stage in the World Cup; however, the nation looks poised to change that this summer. The team is actually projected to come in second place in Group E to secure an automatic bid. If Côte d’Ivoire is upset by Curaçao, though, then the West Africans could be in third place and face the USMNT.

The team, ranked No. 30 globally, has performed extremely well this summer, defeating Ecuador 1–0 in the opener before challenging Germany mightly. The European powerhouse needed a stoppage time goal to overcome Côte d’Ivoire 2–1.

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2. Japan

Japan has been highly successful thus far this summer. | David Ramos/Getty Images

Although the USMNT defeated Japan 2–0 last September in a friendly, the Samurai Blue are a mighty World Cup foe. Just ask Germany and Spain, both of whom were downed by it in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Similar to the USMNT, Japan is seeking a deep run this summer and would consequently put the Americans to the test in the round of 32.

Japan, ranked No. 16 globally, earned a highly-respectable draw with the Netherlands to open Group F before dominating Tunisia 4–0. Should the nation defeat or draw with Sweden on Thursday, it will at least clinch second-place and automatic advance. Should Sweden earn an upset victory, though, the Japanese will fall to third-place.

It would still be highly likely to advance with four points and, thus, more likely than other third-place contenders to face the USMNT.

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1. Netherlands

The Oranje are a frightful foe. | Jose Hernandez/Anadolu/Getty Images

It would certainly not be ideal for the USMNT to face Netherlands so soon into the knockout stage. The serious World Cup contenders, ranked No. 8 globally, are highly-anticipated to win out Group F, but right now, it’s technically still a tight race. Should Netherlands somehow fall asleep at the wheel against Tunisia, it could drop as low as third-place and right into the USMNT’s path.

After the draw against Japan, Netherlands made a merciless statement out of Sweden, pounding the Scandinavians to a pulp.

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