Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: All Eyes on San Diego State, VCU for Bubble Spots

Welcome to championship week! It’s perhaps the busiest week of the year in college basketball, an all-out race to lock in spots in the NCAA tournament with Selection Sunday just one day away and the process of building the bracket taking shape. Throughout the week, Sports Illustrated will have daily and in some cases even more frequent updates with all the latest in projecting the field of 68. Here’s a look at where things stand entering championship Saturday.

Autobids Decided Saturday

America East: No. 1 UMBC vs. No. 2 Vermont, 11 a.m. ET
MEAC: No. 1 Howard vs. No. 3 NC Central, 1 p.m. ET
Big 12: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Houston, 6 p.m. ET
Mountain West: No. 1 Utah State vs. No. 2 San Diego State, 6 p.m. ET
Big East: No. 1 St. John’s vs. No. 2 UConn, 6:30 p.m. ET
SWAC: No. 3. Southern vs. No. 8 Prairie View A&M, 7:30 p.m. ET
MAC: No. 2 Akron vs. No. 4 Toledo, 8 p.m. ET
ACC: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 Virginia, 8:30 p.m. ET
Conference USA: No. 4 Louisiana Tech vs. No. 6 Kennesaw State, 8:30 p.m. ET
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine vs. No. 2 Hawai’i, 10 p.m. ET
WAC: No. 1 Utah Valley vs. No. 2 California Baptist, midnight ET Sunday

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

NC State
UCF
Santa Clara
Missouri

Last Four In

Miami (Ohio)
VCU
SMU
Texas

First Four Out

Auburn
San Diego State
Oklahoma
New Mexico

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Indiana
Seton Hall
Cincinnati

Oklahoma made an incredible push in recent weeks from the SEC cellar to serious bubble contention, but couldn’t quite get past Darius Acuff Jr. and Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals. It’s likely the Sooners didn’t do quite enough to get in, with fairly middling metrics across the board and a 10–15 record against the top two quadrants. It’d be a surprise if Oklahoma snuck into the field, though if the committee wanted to reward them for their late-season form compared to much of the bubble it wouldn’t be impossible to justify.

We had what was functionally an elimination game for bubble contention overnight in the Mountain West, with San Diego State winning to keep its hopes alive and New Mexico losing to leave it the fourth team out of the field. San Diego State isn’t in our field yet though and will be as bubbly as it gets with a loss to Utah State on Saturday.

Saturday’s Bubble Games to Monitor

VCU vs. St. Joseph’s, 3:30 p.m. ET
San Diego State vs. Utah State, 6 p.m. ET

We’re down to just two true bubble teams in action, both mid-majors.

VCU needs one more win to feel comfortable about its NCAA tournament standing. The Rams’ résumé looks a bit clear of the cut line at present, but a loss to St. Joe’s would fall in Quad 3 and be very damaging. It would also have the downstream effect of setting up a potential bid stealer situation Sunday for St. Joe’s, which could take VCU’s spot in the field.

San Diego State added a Quad 1 win late Friday night to stay in the thick of the bubble convo. But without San Diego State beating Utah State, the door is very much open for the MWC to be a one-bid league. With a loss, perhaps the best hope would be a trip to Dayton.

Bubble teams should also be on high alert of other potential bid steals. Ole Miss continuing its Cinderella run through the SEC tournament with a win over Arkansas would be an unsettling sight for the bubble, as would Dayton upsetting Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 semifinals.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Southern*/Lehigh
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Akron*
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 UC Irvine*
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 South Florida*
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard*/UMBC*
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis*
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 SMU/Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Louisiana Tech*

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 VCU/Texas
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Idaho
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Furman

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Missouri
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Siena

Bracket Notes

Friday’s slate had some significant results that moved teams up or down a seed line. Plus, Sports Illustrated made a few other changes after some thorough evaluation (or scrubbing, as the committee often calls it) of some of the more polarizing teams in the field.

Among the notable changes made:

Iowa State couldn’t quite pull off the upset of Arizona, but acquitted itself well against the likely No. 1 seed in the West. That said, Illinois’s loss to Wisconsin was enough to allow the Cyclones to jump to the No. 2 line, pushing the Illini down to a No. 3 seed.
Purdue bumped up to the No. 3 line after blowing out Nebraska, which moved down to the No. 4 line in its place. It was a razor-thin margin between the Huskers and Alabama, which lost to Ole Miss. Their places could flip-flop before our final projection.
Vanderbilt’s win over Tennessee was enough to displace Texas Tech off the No. 4 line. The Commodores secure the last protected seed.
UCLA’s upset of Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament was enough to bump the Bruins up off the dreaded No. 8 line to a No. 7. This Bruins team is playing great of late and looks dangerous with the right matchups.

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