Inside The Reds

Cincinnati Reds Hit with Disappointing 2025 PECOTA Standings Projection

The Reds won 77 games in 2024.

Greg Kuffner

Sep 6, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl (29) celebrates his two run home run against the New York Mets with left fielder Spencer Steer (7) during the seventh inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Sep 6, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl (29) celebrates his two run home run against the New York Mets with left fielder Spencer Steer (7) during the seventh inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus came out on Monday, which projected the Reds to finish in last place in the National League Central division with a simulated record of 73.5-88.5.

The projections give the Reds just a 1.5% chance of winning the division and a 4.9% chance to make the playoffs.

The Reds won 77 games in 2024 and finished fourth in the division, ahead of just the Pirates.

Despite adding backup catcher José Trevino, signing free-agent outfielder Austin Hays, and trading for Gavin Lux and Brady Singer, the projections remain unimpressed.

It's worth noting PECOTA had the 2022 Reds projected to win 79 games and the team won just 62 games that season.

You can see the full projections here.

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Greg Kuffner
GREG KUFFNER

Greg Kuffner a contributor to Reds On SI. He graduated from the University of Cincinnati and worked for the Sports Information Department during his time as a student. He follows all things Reds year round, including the minor league system.

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