All Bengals Staff Makes Picks For Monday Night Football Matchup Against Browns

CINCINNATI — The Bengals hit the road to play the Browns on Monday night in the Battle of Ohio.

Cleveland is desperate, as they enter the contest with a 2-5 record. They've lost four straight games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are hoping to get their first AFC North win of the season.

Here are our staff predictions for Monday's primetime matchup:

Elise Jesse, All Bengals Insider

Season Record: 4-3

Monday's Halloween bash has already been spooked with injuries on the Bengals side, with the most brutal being Ja'Marr Chase's hip and labrum injuries. The Browns will be rolling in with a creepy 2-5 record. It's creepy, because I don't believe their record reflects their talent. Jacoby Brissett only threw 27 passes in Week 7, but he doesn't need to throw a ton with Nick Chubb in the back field. The Browns star ranks first in the league in every major stat category linked to a running back. With DJ Reader still out, Jay Tufele will need to continue to fill the void at an extremely high level. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the best defensive player for Cincinnati against the Falcons with an 87.2 grade.

If you follow Tyler Boyd on Instagram, you noticed that he posted a picture of himself, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon in the wake of the Chase hip/labrum injury news. That tells me that they're planning on stepping up their play even further with a massive divisional win on the line. Not having Chase on the field is a huge blow to their offensive swagger, but Joe Burrow will need to elevate the guys around him and find ways to win these next 3-5 games without his best friend and top receiver. I think Monday's game will tell us a lot about Burrow and the guys who surround him, and I expect Cincy's defense to keep playing as they have all year which has carried the team in some games. It will be close but the Bengals pull out the win.

Prediction: Bengals 20, Browns 17

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Russ Heltman, All Bengals Contributor

Season Record: 4-3

No Chase is clearly a massive blow for the Bengals offense as the team-leader in targets (78), catches (47), receiving yards (605), and touchdowns (six). That being said, it's still no excuse to to lose to a 2-5 Browns team, especially with two of the top-15 most-efficient wide receivers in the league still healthy.

Tyler Boyd (first in Football Outsider's receiving DVOA, fourth in DYAR) and Tee Higgins (14th DVOA, 14th DYAR) are capable of picking up the slack.

Much like the Falcons, Cleveland doesn't do anything very well defensively. That unit ranks 30th in EPA over the last month and 28th in success rate; the Browns are also last in overall defensive DVOA at home this season.

The rush defense is historically bad—giving up double the rush EPA/play as the 31st ranked team on the season, and their pass defense is below average (0.1 EPA/dropback, 22nd). Plus, they're 25th in pressure rate.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is cruising offensively since moving to a shotgun-heavy approach. Burrow now ranks fourth among all QBs in adjusted EPA/play this season. Since the 0-2 start, Cincy is second in overall DVOA and second in offensive EPA/play. That includes the eighth-best rushing success rate over that span, so a huge Mixon workload is probable.

Add in the historical trends, and things get worse for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski, who is 1-4 against the spread vs. AFC North teams in primetime, and the Browns are 0-2 straight up/ATS as underdogs in primetime under Stefanski. The Bengals avoid Cleveland's tricks and treat fans to Halloween win.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20

Nicole Zembrodt, All Bengals Contributor

Season Record: 4-3

The Bengals go against another run-heavy offense this week in Cleveland. They're third in the league with 1,145 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per attempt. 12 of their 18 touchdowns have been on the ground.

Chubb is the best running back the Bengals have faced thus far. He leads the league with 740 yards (105.7/game) and eight rushing touchdowns. His strength sets him apart as he can carry defenders along or hit them with a stiff arm to avoid being brought down. Chubb has the most yards after contact among running backs (510) this season.

Like last week against the Falcons, it will be crucial for Cincinnati to set the tone early by jumping out to an early lead. The Bengals scored on their first four drives as the offense looked unstoppable. The big lead forced Marcus Mariota and the Falcons to throw the ball, despite being a run-first team. Chubb and the Browns keep things close to start the game, but Cincinnati's offense pull away in the second half as the Bengals break their primetime curse on the road and pick up their first division win of the year.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Browns 23

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Blake Jewell, All Bengals Contributor

Season Record: 5-2

The Bengals are on a hot streak, winning four of their last five. After their explosive offensive performance last week, I believe they pick up where they left off and control the game through the air.

The key to stopping the Browns will be limiting Chubb’s touches. Without Reader, the Bengals could struggle to stop the Browns rushing attack completely. They’ll have to get an early lead and control the game to make sure Chubb touches the ball as little as possible. I think the Bengals offense gets this done and the defense does enough to hold off the Browns.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Browns 24

Mike Santagata, All Bengals Film Analyst

Season Record: 3-4

Burrow has never beaten the Cleveland Browns in his young career. This is also Burrow's first Monday Night Football game. The last three times the Bengals played on Monday night, it was against the Pittsburgh Steelers, including the Muppet Night Football victory in 2020.

While the Browns have had the Bengals number recently, this is a different Browns team.

If the Bengals can protect Burrow and jump on Cleveland early, it should be a good day for Bengals fans. If it's tight throughout or if Cleveland starts hot, it's going to be more difficult. I think the Bengals keep this offense rolling and win on the road.

Prediction: Bengals 34, Browns 27

Lindsay Patterson, All Bengals Contributor

Season Record: 4-3

The Bengals are looking for their first win in the AFC North this season and Burrow is currently 0-3 against the Browns. It's all about starting out fast and will we see this offense stay hot? Can they contain Garrett?

Chubb is what scares me the most about this Browns' offense and he can really break up the game. I think it's finally time for Burrow to get his first win over the Browns and the club stays atop of the AFC North. I don't think they hit 30 or more for the third straight week, but the Bengals leave Cleveland with a win.

Prediction: Bengals 26, Browns 20

Andrew Miller, All Bengals Video Editor

Season Record: 4-3

The Cincinnati Bengals need to figure out how to consistently run the ball with Mixon to secure a win on Monday night. Higgins, Boyd and Hayden Hurst will all have their moments, but the Browns will likely be attempting to dominate time of possession with Chubb throughout the game. The Bengals will be acclimating to an offense without Chase. Burrow can certainly win games despite the absence of their star wide receiver, but there will be a calibration period that could take several quarters or several weeks. The Browns are below average both at pressuring quarterbacks and attacking the run, but, without Chase, I expect this to be a close game that ends up being a narrow victory for Cincinnati.

Prediction: Bengals 17, Browns 14

James Yarcho, All Bengals Contributor

Season Record: 4-3

Even without Chase, the Bengals are poised to keep the offense rolling. With a larger work load for Boyd—who is coming off a stellar game—and the continued quest for a Mixon breakout game, the Bengals have all they need to keep pace in the division following Baltimore's Thursday night victory.

Higgins and Boyd both go over 100 yards receiving while the scoring comes early and often for Cincinnati and Burrow gets his first win against the in-state rival.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Browns 13

James Rapien, All Bengals Publisher

Season Record: 4-3

Both teams are shorthanded for this primetime matchup. The Bengals' offense could start slow as they adjust to life without Chase, but as long as they can keep Garrett from wrecking the game, Burrow should be able to lead Cincinnati to victory. The Browns keep it close, but Evan McPherson drills the game winner late in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Browns 20

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