Bengal Bets: Three Picks for Cincinnati's Week 6 Battle Against New Orleans

CINCINNATI — Make that three straight winning weeks on Bengal Bets. Unfortunately, the same can't be said about the Cincinnati Bengals following a 19-17 loss at the gun to Baltimore.

The under easily cashed as it has in every Bengals game this season, while Justin Tucker banged four field goals to smash the over on that front. Joe Burrow kept us from another 3-0 week by going under his passing yards total.

This week, Cincinnati stays on the road for a third matchup against Andy Dalton in a different uniform. The banged-up New Orleans Saints welcome in the Orange and Black for a pseudo-LSU homecoming.

Here are the Week 6 Bengal Bets:

Season Record: 10-5 (+2.91 Units)

Bengals -2.5 (+100 SI Sportsbook)

This offense has to go off at some point, right? That side of the ball has been a root canal for the Bengals so far this season. Cincinnati ranks 25th in offensive DVOA and 20th in EPA/play. The barge starts turning in the right direction this week.

Burrow has had some of his greatest football moments at The Superdome and he will play his best football of the season on Sunday. New Orleans has multiple safeties fighting injuries this week, to go along with shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore's abdominal issue.

New Orleans has an average pass defense even with all of those secondary pieces in the fold (16th in dropback EPA allowed, 13th pass defense DVOA). Burrow will get Tyler Boyd more involved on intermediate throws to keep drives alive and start faster on early downs (31st in early-down offensive EPA).

Defensively, The Bengals are missing DJ Reader against an efficient Alvin Kamara (seventh among RBs in success rate), but the dual-threat back could be the only healthy weapon for Andy Dalton. Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are fighting through real injuries.

A healthier, more consistent Bengals defense gives them the edge. They won't miss a bunch of tackles against Taysom Hill (t-10th fewest missed tackles in 2022). Finally, the trends scream Bengals.

New Orleans is 3-7 SU/ATS in their last 10 home games. The Saints have lost four straight SU/ATS as home dogs.
Burrow is 6-2 ATS on a road trip in the NFL (two or more consecutive road games).
Burrow has played 24 games in his career with a spread of under a FG favorite or as an underdog, he is 16-9 ATS.
Burrow is 6-1 ATS the game after scoring 17 points or less, covering by 7.1 PPG.

Joe Mixon O16.5 Carries (-133 SI Sportsbook)

The Bengal bell-cow running back got rolling a little bit against Baltimore. He posted 14 carries for 87 yards on a season-high 5.57 yards per attempt.

Mixon had not gone over 3.04 yards per carry in a game until the road loss to Baltimore and despite going under this total by three carries, The script is set up for a huge workload. The Saints are solid, not dominant in defending the run, as teams have racked up a ton of attempts in 2022.

The Saints are allowing 24 carries per game to running backs (sixth-most) and 4.6 yards per carry (14th-most). On the offensive side, Mixon is getting FED in 2022. He boasts the fourth-most carries (96 carries, 19.2 per game) and most expected fantasy points (112, next closest is 92) among running backs.

This prop has hit 62.5% of the time since the start of last season and there's a strong floor: Mixon hasn't gone under 12 carries in a game over that period.

Joe Burrow U0.5 Interceptions (-133 SI Sportsbook)

Burrow threw a game-changing interception against Baltimore on Sunday night, his first since tossing four against the Steelers to open the season.

The accuracy hasn't been the same in 2022, as he sits 18th among qualified passers in Completion Percentage Over Expectation after leading the league last season. Call me crazy, but I'm banking on Burrow's best trait getting sharper and sharper for the rest of the season.

The Saints are a great matchup for avoiding picks. They have just one interception this season (t-28th) and only 16 pass breakups (28th).

The odds of a pick go even lower when looking at the aforementioned Saints' secondary injuries.

Finally, the cherry on top is pressure. We know consistent havoc forces QBs to make increasingly worse decisions. New Orleans doesn't get after the passer. They rank 28th in pressure rate (16.9%) and t-19th in sacks (10).

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