Bills vs. Bengals Preview: Prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

A battle in Buffalo.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (8-4) will take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) for a critical Week 14 matchup, as both teams’ playoff hopes remain hanging in the balance.

Buffalo is coming off a throttling victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, during which it recorded a season-high 249 yards rushing while limiting Pittsburgh to the lowest rushing output recorded by a Bills’ opponent this season (58 yards).

The Bengals had Burrow return from a toe injury for this past week’s game, in which they went on to record a 32-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Burrow threw for 261 yards passing and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase finished the victory with seven receptions for 110 yards.

Both teams are riding a bit of momentum from their Week 13 wins. And they will each hope to build upon their rhythm in this Week 14 conference tilt.

Kickoff is coming up. Let’s flip through some news and a few notes surrounding what should be a competitive matchup:

Nov 5, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) leaps over Cincinnati Bengals safety Nick Scott (33) in the second half at Paycor Stadium. | Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of early Sunday morning, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals. Buffalo is 3-3 against the spread as a home favorite this season, while Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this season. Since the 2021 season, Burrow has had remarkable success as a three-plus-point underdog, with his 92.9% cover percentage in such situations over that span, ranking him best among quarterbacks with at least five starts as a three-plus-point underdog, per Sport Radar.

Weather report

A slight dusting of snow of about one or two inches is expected to fall during the game, which should be enough to coat the playing surface. In addition to the forecasted precipitation, temperatures are expected to be in the 20s, with winds of about 10 mph adding to the wind chill, which should cause the temperature to dip even further.

MORE: Snow game expected for Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 14 matchup

Nov 16, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins (73) warms up prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Bills injuries

Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is expected to try and give it a go against the Bengals, per a report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter, which would end a three-game absence dating back to Week 11. Kincaid is officially questionable per Friday’s injury report.

The Bills will also be expected to get left tackle Dion Dawkins back in the lineup after he missed this past week with a concussion. However, right tackle Spencer Brown (shoulder) is questionable to play after being sidelined last Sunday against the Steelers. If Brown cannot go, Ryan Van Demark will earn another start, this time on the right side after he filled in for Dawkins on Allen’s blindside against Pittsburgh.

Additionally, Buffalo’s top pass rusher, Joey Bosa, has been declared out due to a hamstring injury. It will be the first game the Bills’ sack leader has missed in his first season with the team. Linebacker Terrel Bernard has also been ruled out with an elbow injury, which will be the second straight game he has been sidelined.

Wide receiver Joshua Palmer has been deemed doubtful. If he indeed is absent, it will be his fourth game missed due to injury this season.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) jukes against Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) on a catch in the first quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Bengals injuries

The Bengals’ top pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, is out for Sunday’s game, which will be the fifth straight contest he has been sidelined due to hip and pelvis injuries. Cincinnati has also ruled out linebacker/special teams contributor Shaka Heyward due to a fibula injury, while wide receiver Tee Higgins will return after missing this past week due to a concussion.

Coaching matchup

Zac Taylor and the Bengals are 2-1 (including playoffs) against Sean McDermott’s Bills, including a 24-18 victory over Buffalo in Week 9 of the 2023 season. Taylor has had somewhat of a secret sauce when coaching the Bengals on the road in December and January, with his 11-7 record away from home in the winter months ranking eighth among coaches since 1970, per SportRadar.

McDermott’s teams have also been impressive late in the regular season, posting a record of 23-4 in December and January since the 2020 campaign. That’s the best mark in the NFL over that span.

MORE: Buffalo Bills' coordinator subject of latest head coaching rumors

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor observes the team warming up as Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott, background, shakes hands with game officials before an AFC divisional round game. | Kareem Elgazzar-Imagn Images

Top storyline

This week’s meeting between two of the league’s top signal callers has received top billing among what is expected to be an exciting early-Sunday slate in Week 14. And rightfully so.

With so much on the line, this is sure to be a high-flying matchup.

Josh Allen has never beaten a Burrow-led Bengals team, falling to the Cincinnati QB once during the regular season and once during the playoffs. Whether he can end that brief streak and pull off the win on Sunday could go a long way toward deciding whether or not these two teams advance to the postseason, increasing the excitement surrounding this AFC clash.

The Bengals have about a 7% chance of making the playoffs, but that number would jump up about 14% with a win this weekend. Buffalo has about a 96% chance to advance to the postseason, but that number would dive by 79% if it falls to Cincinnati.

There is a lot on the line for both Allen and Burrow on Sunday, and with the pressure mounting, expect these two to rise to the occasion while being at their best for their respective teams.

In two career games against the Bills, Burrow has completed 67.5% of his passes for 590 yards and four touchdowns. Allen has completed 63.7% of his passes for 522 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in two games against the Burrow-led Bengals.

We’ll see if Allen can get off the schneid against the Bengals’ QB on Sunday afternoon.

Greg Rousseau, Joe Burrow — Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) carries the ball as Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) defends in the second quarter during an NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills. | Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Player to watch

The only way the Bills have a chance of slowing Burrow in this matchup is to make him uncomfortable. And while Bosa is out, which makes a Bills’ pass rush that has struggled recently even less fearsome, edge rusher Greg Rousseau remains healthy and available to lead the Buffalo pressure unit.

Rousseau has just three sacks this season, which is not enough considering the lucrative contract extension he signed this past offseason. The time is now for the former first-round pick to live up to his paycheck and come through with a transcendent performance to help carry his team through some tough luck injury-wise.

The Bengals' offensive line has been a sieve this season, allowing the fifth-worst pass block win rate (56%) in the league.

Prediction — Bills 30, Bengals 29

This one is going to be a barn burner.

When the Bengals are fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, they are as dangerous as any team in the NFL. And while they are a bit banged up defensively, as are the Bills.

Sunday’s game should be one in which these two teams go tit for tat, which will create high drama at what could be the final game slated for Sunday, 1 p.m. at the current Highmark Stadium.

In the end, Allen will outduel Burrow and deliver a game-winning touchdown to Keon Coleman with little time left in the fourth quarter to push Buffalo over the edge, sending it to a crucial victory over a conference rival.

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