Bills vs. Broncos preview, prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

Headed west for the most important game of the season.

The No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills (13-5) have saddled up for Denver, where they will meet the No. 1 seed Broncos (14-3) on Saturday afternoon for a Divisional Round showdown set for 4:30 p.m. at Empower Field at Mile High.

Coming off a first-round bye, the Broncos not only have home-field advantage but also have a rest advantage. Denver has not played since Week 18, when it locked up the top spot in the conference with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Quarterback Bo Nix will lead the Broncos into battle after a stellar second professional season, which has elevated his team to new heights. But sitting on the other sideline is the reigning MVP, Josh Allen, who powered the Bills to another impressive victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round this past week.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs past teammate Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox (88) who blocks Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) during the first half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Wild Card game, won by the Bills by a 31-7 score. Some of the faces have changed, but many remain the same, including the two teams’ head coaches, who are among the most experienced in the NFL.

The winner of this matchup will advance to the AFC Championship, with Buffalo seeking its second consecutive berth in the conference title game.

Kickoff is fast approaching. Let’s take a dive into the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s game.

MORE: New Bills' WR doing 'whatever it takes' to help team beat Broncos in Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) breaks several tackles and runs for about 10-yards during the second half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

The Bills are a 1.5-point underdog entering Saturday’s game, per FanDuel. It’s the fourth game Buffalo will enter as an underdog this season, going 3-0 straight up in its previous three such opportunities. On the other side, the Broncos are 3-9 against the spread as a favorite during the 2025 campaign.

(Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Weather report

Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the low-to-mid 30s with clear skies and winds at 5-10 miles per hour, per The Weather Channel. It should be a nice night for football in Denver.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (1) catches a pass, turns and runs to the end zone for a touchdown during the second half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bills injuries

The Bills will be without two defensive contributors, while five other players were deemed questionable to play against the Broncos on Saturday.

Safety Jordan Poyer (hamstring) and cornerback Maxwell Hairston (ankle) have each been declared out for the Divisional Round matchup. It will be Poyer’s third absence in four games after he reaggravated his ailment before halftime in the Wild Card Round. Hairston is out for the second straight week after he was lost late during Buffalo’s Week 18 win over the New York Jets.

The five players marked questionable included three players who had yet to be activated off Injured Reserve — defensive tackle Ed Oliver (bicep/knee), wide receiver Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral). The Bills announced Oliver and Samuel’s activations on Friday, while Hamlin remains on IR with one more week remaining in his window to return to the active roster.

Oliver and Samuel’s game-day status will be revealed by 3 p.m. on Saturday.

MORE: Buffalo Bills will be without 2 key players against Broncos in Divisional Round

Linebacker Terrel Bernard (calf) and running back Ty Johnson (ankle) are also questionable to play against the Broncos. Johnson did not suit up last week against the Jaguars, while Bernard has been out for two straight weeks. Johnson had a big game against Denver in last season’s Wild Card Round, when he recorded 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.

The Bills elevated running back Frank Gore Jr. from the practice squad on Friday, which points toward Johnson being a game-time decision on Saturday. Buffalo also elevated wide receiver Mecole Hardman from the practice squad for the Divisional Round.

Broncos injuries

Denver will see the return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw on Saturday after a two-game absence caused by a hamstring injury. Defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers is also set to return after missing the team’s regular-season finale due to a hip injury.

Every player on Denver’s 53-man roster is healthy and ready to go for the playoff matchup.

Coaching matchup

Sean McDermott and Sean Payton are two of the most successful active head coaches in the league. McDermott currently has the fourth-best winning percentage (.650) among active coaches with more than one full season under their belt, while Payton ranks eighth (0.623).

Their records in the postseason are similar, with McDermott sitting at 8-7, while Payton is 9-9, albeit with a Super Bowl championship under his belt. The two coaches have each won two of four matchups against one another all-time, including playoffs.

Top storyline

The quarterback duel featured in this game is expected to be a good one. Allen has proven himself to be one of the top playoff performers in the game despite his team's inability to advance to the Super Bowl, while Nix is hoping to make a name for himself as his team sits as the top dog in the conference entering its latest postseason run.

With that said, if you dig a bit deeper, Nix is closer to average than he is to being one of the league’s top signal callers. The Broncos’ QB finished 13th in the NFL in EPA per drop back (+0.05) and 26th in completion rate over expected (-2.1%), per Next Gen Stats. Additionally, while he has been lauded for his league-leading seven game-winning drives during the regular season, five of them came against non-playoff teams.

Nix can take a step toward stardom with a breakout performance against the Bills on Saturday. But until he proves it on the big stage, it’s tough to imagine him outdueling Allen en route to victory in this game.

MORE: Bills' castoff WR elevated from Broncos' practice squad for Divisional Round matchup

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) gets grabbed by and then sacked by Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) during the second half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Player to watch

Dalton Kincaid has flown under the radar as one of the most efficient pass catchers in the NFL this season, mainly due to his various absences caused by different injuries that have popped up throughout the year. But this week may be his coming-out party of sorts.

As was pointed out by The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen, the Broncos have allowed a load of production to opposing tight ends this season, including the ninth-most yards and the eighth-highest average yards per reception (10.7) to players at the position. Kincaid, along with fellow TEs Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, should be a significant part of the game plan for the Bills in the Divisional Round.

Prediction — Bills 30, Broncos 17

Despite the Broncos being the higher seed, the Bills have the superior quarterback and a team with substantially more playoff experience. Denver should be commended for its regular-season performance, but this is now the postseason, where Josh Allen seems to have all the answers.

Although the Bills continue to deal with injuries to key positions, the zone in which the Bills' quarterback seemed to enter in last week's win was remarkable, and if he can carry that through into Saturday's game, it could be a long day for the Broncos.

The one way Denver could potentially combat Allen and company is by gearing up its pass rush, which has been one of the best in the NFL this season. Linebacker Nik Bonitto and the rest of the Broncos' pressure unit are capable of ruining any quarterback's day, and the Buffalo offensive line must prevent it from getting going early in this game.

With that said, gimme the Bills to ease their way to a second straight postseason win over Bo Nix and the Broncos while inching one step closer to reaching their ultimate goal.

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