Why Bills won't crush Broncos as easily as last year

Some things have changed and some have remained the same as last year's wild-card game

Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws downfield as Denver Broncos linebacker Justin Strnad (40) defends during the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Last January, the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos met in the AFC wild-card round, with the Bills cruising to a 31-7 victory in just the second playoff matchup between the two franchises.

This season, however, the stakes are much higher. Buffalo and Denver will meet in the divisional round with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. While some things have changed since last year, others have stayed exactly the same.

Broncos' defense more smothering

Nov 2, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga (9) and Denver Broncos linebacker Dre Greenlaw (57) celebrate after a play during the first half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. | Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

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In both 2024 and 2025, Denver's defense, the primary reason the Broncos reached the postseason, allowed an average of just 18.3 points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. They also surrendered 37.4 fewer yards per game than they did in 2024.

Spearheaded by former 49ers free-agent additions Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, the latter expected to return from a hamstring injury after missing Denver's last two games, the Broncos' defense has arguably become the best unit in the AFC.

Denver also racked up 68 sacks, leading the NFL and improving on their league-best total of 63 in 2024. Josh Allen was sacked only twice in last year's playoff meeting, but he took a career-high 40 sacks in 2025, making pass protection a major storyline.

Bills' WR group has somehow gotten worse

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) is carted off after an apparent injury during the fourth quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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The Bills entered last-season's wild-card game with a diminished Amari Cooper as their top outside receiver. This year, it seemed almost impossible for Buffalo's receiving corps to be in worse shape, yet somehow, it is.

Big free-agent signing Joshua Palmer was placed on season-ending injured reserve on Saturday, and Gabe Davis, who returned to Buffalo this season and appeared in seven games, was carted off with a left knee injury against the Jaguars that was revealed to be a season-ending torn ACL.

Despite Allen thriving with a patchwork group of wideouts all season, that formula will be tested against Denver's elite defense. Whoever joins Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman and Tyrell Shavers in the rotation will be worth monitoring closely.

Broncos' résumé remains underwhelming

Dec 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is sacked by Broncos linebacker Jonah Elliss (52) during the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

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In 2024, Denver posted a strength of victory (SOV) of .394, ranking eighth among 16 AFC teams. The story has been similar in 2025, with a .378 SOV, tied for 11th in the conference.

Denver's most notable wins came against the Texans after C.J. Stroud exited with a concussion, and against the Packers when Green Bay was ravaged by injuries, including a torn ACL to star edge rusher Micah Parsons.

The Broncos may be the top seed in the AFC, but that standing masks the fact that many of their best wins came under favorable circumstances.

Josh Allen is still Josh Allen

Jan 11, 2026; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scores a touchdown during the first half in an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

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Speaking of circumstances, Allen battled through multiple injuries on Sunday as the Bills defeated the Jaguars in Jacksonville, securing their first road playoff win in 34 years.

After struggling through the middle two quarters, the reigning NFL MVP delivered his first game-winning drive in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, going 9-for-11 for 103 yards and a touchdown while adding five rushes for 21 yards and the game-winning score in the final frame alone.

Allen threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns and added 46 rushing yards against Denver last January. Even if he absorbs plenty of hits, a similar performance may be expected and required this time around.

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