Bills vs. Jaguars preview, prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

The pressure is on.

Buffalo (12-5) comes into Sunday's Wild-Card matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars as the No. 6 seed as they get set to take on the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4), with each team hoping to advance to next week's Divisional Round.

Jacksonville has ridden the performance of QB Trevor Lawrence, who has been phenomenal over his team’s current eight-game winning streak. Additionally, the Jacksonville defense, powered by edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen and linebacker Devin Lloyd, has been strong, allowing just 14.5 points per game during that span.

The Bills have won five of their last six games, including a few miraculous comeback wins fueled by Allen’s mastery.

MORE: Bills sign Hairston's replacement, make other moves ahead of Jaguars Wild Card game

Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd (0) enters the stadium before an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Will Buffalo have the magic and pull the upset over the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon? Or will a disappointing defeat lead to a soul-searching offseason that could lead to a few ousters amongst the team’s leadership?

Time will tell. But for the time being, let’s dive into the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s game.

Bills James Cook finds an open lane and tries to get through it during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 23, 2024. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

The Bills have flipped from 1.5-point favorites to 1.5-point underdogs, per FanDuel. It is the first time since Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs that the Bills will not be favored. Buffalo won that game 28-21 after entering as 1.5-point ‘dogs. The Bills were also 1.5-point underdogs for their Week 1 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, which they won 41-40 in thrilling fashion.

Jacksonville is 7-1 against the spread as a favorite this season.

(Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Weather report

Sunday’s weather forecast in Jacksonville calls for clouds throughout the afternoon with a high temperature of 66 degrees and winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour. Precipitation will not be a concern during the playoff tilt.

MORE: Buffalo Bills could have avoided Maxwell Hairston's injury vs. Jets in Week 18

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) catches a pass against Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Darious Williams (31). | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Bills injuries

As has been the case throughout the season, the Bills are dealing with a long list of injuries entering this weekend’s matchup.

Along with placing wide receiver Joshua Palmer on Injured Reserve Saturday due to an ankle injury, and Jordan Phillips on IR earlier in the week with an ankle ailment of his own, Buffalo also has three players who have already been declared out and three who have been marked questionable for the Wild-Card game.

The most notable of the group is cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who left this past week’s game due to an ankle injury and will now be sidelined. Additionally, linebacker Terrel Bernard is out with a calf injury and safety Damar Hamlin, who had his 21-day window to return from IR opened this week, won’t play as he continues his recovery from a pectoral injury.

Running back Ty Johnson (ankle) is questionable, and after Buffalo elevated RB Frank Gore from the practice squad on Saturday, it appears as if Johnson is unlikely to suit up against the Jaguars. Linebacker Shaq Thompson (neck) is also questionable, as is kicker Matt Prater. Buffalo elected not to elevate practice-squad kicker Matthew Wright for this weekend’s matchup, suggesting Prater is good to go on Sunday.

Cole Van Lanen — Jacksonville Jaguars offensive tackle Cole van Lanen (70) runs on the field. The Jaguars defeated the Titans 41-7, capturing the AFC South title. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jaguars injuries

Jacksonville doesn’t have much of a concern when it comes to injuries. The only player with an injury designation entering Sunday’s contest is left tackle Cole Van Lanen, who missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice due to a knee injury before he was upgraded to limited participation on Friday.

The Bills' top edge-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau must make an impact while pushing Lawrence off his spot and if the Jaguars are without Van Lanen, that proposition becomes a bit less challenging.

Coaching matchup

The Jaguars’ Liam Coen will be the third rookie head coach the Bills have taken on this season, finishing 3-0 in three matchups — two against Aaron Glenn and the New York Jets and one vs. Kellen Moore and the New Orleans Saints. The Bills won those three games by a combined score of 96-37.

MORE: Jordan Poyer reveals if he's ready to play in Bills' Wild-Card round vs. Jaguars

Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) rushes the quarterback past Jacksonville Jaguars offensive lineman Jawaan Taylor (75) during the first quarter at TIAA Bank Field. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Top storyline

One of the focuses of this game will be Bills running back James Cook — the NFL’s rushing leader — against the Jaguars’ No. 1-ranked rushing defense. Jacksonville hasn’t allowed a 75-yard rusher all season, becoming the third team since the 2000 season to do so. On the other side of the coin, Cook has recorded nine games of 100-plus yards rushing en route to becoming Buffalo’s first rushing king since 1976. Something will have to give in this game.

Player to watch

With the Bills’ pass-catching corps struggling the way it has throughout the season, one of the few bright spots has been Dalton Kincaid’s production. That is, when he is healthy enough to be in the lineup. As was pointed out by @YardsPerPass on X, over the past two years, the Bills are 23-5 when Kincaid suits up and 4-5 when he doesn’t. His presence in the lineup against the Jaguars will be immensely valuable as the Bills hope to keep up with a Jacksonville offense that has averaged 33.6 points per game during its current eight-game winning streak.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs out of the pocket against the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Prediction — Bills 35, Jaguars 31

This game is a toss-up.

The Jaguars are the more complete team, but the Bills have a superior QB-RB-OL combination that is sure to wreak havoc on a Jacksonville defense that has shown vast improvement this season.

One thing to watch will be each team’s special teams unit if the contest comes down to a late-game field goal. With Prater dealing with a lingering quad injury the past several weeks, it will be interesting to see if he is able to come through if called upon in a big spot. For the Jaguars, Cam Little has been one of the best big-leg kickers in the league, draining a 67-yarder this past week against the Titans.

If that’s the case, I like the Jaguars. But at the end of the day, I think this one will come down to a game-winning touchdown drive engineered by Allen to help the Bills come from behind and steal an opening-round win. Give me the Bills’ QB to go for 200-plus passing yards and the game-winning score, while Cook will solve Jacksonville’s vaunted rush defense en route to a successful afternoon.

For the sixth straight season, Buffalo will advance to the Divisional Round with a chance at its second straight AFC Championship Game appearance.

— Sign up for OnSI’s Free Buffalo Bills Newsletter —

More Buffalo Bills News:

Buffalo Bills WR's season over after landing on IR ahead of Jaguars Wild-Card game

All-Pro voters show lack of respect for NFL's rushing leader, Bills' offensive line

One surprise as pair of Buffalo Bills players named All-Pros

Josh Allen's foot injury 'as healthy it's been in a while' entering game vs. Jaguars